IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/chosxx/v29y2014i3p339-361.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Expectation Adjustment in the Housing Market: Insights from the Scottish Auction System

Author

Listed:
  • Sotirios Thanos
  • Michael White

Abstract

This paper examines price expectation adjustment of house buyers and sellers to rapid changes in the housing market using data from Scotland where houses are sold through 'first-price sealed-bid' auctions. These auctions provide more information on market signals, incentives and the behaviour of market participants than private treaty sales. This paper therefore provides a theoretical framework for analysing revealed preference data generated from these auctions. We specifically focus on the analysis of the selling to asking price difference, the 'bid-premium'. The bid-premium is shown to be affected by expectations of future price movements, market duration and high bidding frequency. The bid-premium reflects consumer's expectations, adapting to market conditions more promptly than asking price setting behaviour and final sale prices. The volatile conditions of the recent housing market bubble are fully reflected in the bid-premium, whereas the asking and sale prices are much less prone to rapid movements.

Suggested Citation

  • Sotirios Thanos & Michael White, 2014. "Expectation Adjustment in the Housing Market: Insights from the Scottish Auction System," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 339-361, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:chosxx:v:29:y:2014:i:3:p:339-361
    DOI: 10.1080/02673037.2013.783200
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/02673037.2013.783200
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/02673037.2013.783200?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Parag Pathak, 2011. "Forced Sales and House Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2108-2131, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thanos, Sotirios & Dubé, Jean & Legros, Diègo, 2016. "Putting time into space: the temporal coherence of spatial applications in the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 78-88.
    2. Alison Watts, 2016. "Auctions Versus Private Negotiations in Buyer-Seller Networks," Games, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-14, August.
    3. Jean Dubé & Diègo Legros & Sotirios Thanos, 2018. "Past price ‘memory’ in the housing market: testing the performance of different spatio-temporal specifications," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 118-138, January.
    4. Nan Liu, 2021. "Market buoyancy, information transparency and pricing strategy in the Scottish housing market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(16), pages 3388-3406, December.
    5. David Gray, 2018. "An application of two non-parametric techniques to the prices of British dwellings: An examination of cyclicality," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 55(10), pages 2286-2299, August.
    6. Zhou, Fan & Yang, Ziying & Wu, Di & Zheng, Zuduo, 2024. "Shifting towards luxury cars: The price and environmental effects of Beijing’s vehicle lottery system and an alternative policy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    7. Anna Stankowska & Izabela Stankowska-Mazur, 2022. "The Third Wave of COVID-19 versus the Residential Preferences in Poland: An Assessment of Economic Factors and Psychological Determinants," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-15, January.
    8. Sotirios Thanos & Abigail L. Bristow & Mark R. Wardman, 2015. "Residential Sorting And Environmental Externalities: The Case Of Nonlinearities And Stigma In Aviation Noise Values," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 468-490, June.
    9. Ozhegov, Evgeniy M. & Sidorovykh, Aleksandra S., 2017. "Heterogeneity of sellers in housing market: Difference in pricing strategies," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 42-51.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Suarez, Javier & Sánchez Serrano, Antonio, 2018. "Approaching non-performing loans from a macroprudential angle," Report of the Advisory Scientific Committee 7, European Systemic Risk Board.
    2. Christopher Mayer & Edward Morrison & Tomasz Piskorski & Arpit Gupta, 2014. "Mortgage Modification and Strategic Behavior: Evidence from a Legal Settlement with Countrywide," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2830-2857, September.
    3. Biswas, Arnab & Cunningham, Chris & Gerardi, Kristopher & Sexton, Daniel, 2021. "Foreclosure externalities and Vacant Property Registration Ordinances," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    4. Sadayuki, Taisuke, 2018. "Measuring the spatial effect of multiple sites: An application to housing rent and public transportation in Tokyo, Japan," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 155-173.
    5. Todd Sinai, 2012. "House Price Moments in Boom-Bust Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 19-68, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Agarwal, Sumit & Amromin, Gene & Ben-David, Itzhak & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Evanoff, Douglas D., 2011. "The role of securitization in mortgage renegotiation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 559-578.
    7. Marcel Fischer & Roland Füss & Simon Stehle, 2021. "Local house price comovements," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S1), pages 169-198, March.
    8. John P. Harding & Jing Li & Stuart S. Rosenthal & Xirui Zhang, 2022. "Forced moves and home maintenance: The amplifying effects of mortgage payment burden on underwater homeowners," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(2), pages 498-533, June.
    9. Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2011. "Fire Sales in Finance and Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 29-48, Winter.
    10. John Y. Campbell, 2013. "Mortgage Market Design," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 1-33.
    11. Sloczynski, Tymon, 2018. "A General Weighted Average Representation of the Ordinary and Two-Stage Least Squares Estimands," IZA Discussion Papers 11866, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Hyungsuk Byun & Barry Scholnick, 2017. "Spatial Commitment Devices and Addictive Goods: Evidence from the Removal of Slot Machines from Bars," Working Papers 17-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    13. Christopher Mayer, 2010. "Comment on "Reducing Foreclosures: New Easy Answers"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 139-148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Goodstein, Ryan & Hanouna, Paul & Ramirez, Carlos D. & Stahel, Christof W., 2017. "Contagion effects in strategic mortgage defaults," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 50-60.
    15. Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit & Vig, Vikrant, 2010. "Securitization and distressed loan renegotiation: Evidence from the subprime mortgage crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 369-397, September.
    16. Bernstein, Shai & Colonnelli, Emanuele & Giroud, Xavier & Iverson, Benjamin, 2019. "Bankruptcy spillovers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(3), pages 608-633.
    17. Hanming Fang & You Suk Kim & Wenli Li, 2015. "The Dynamics of Adjustable-Rate Subprime Mortgage Default: A Structural Estimation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-114, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Giordana, Gastón & Ziegelmeyer, Michael, 2020. "Stress testing household balance sheets in Luxembourg," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-138.
    19. Francis Wong, 2024. "Taxing Homeowners Who Won’t Borrow," CESifo Working Paper Series 11185, CESifo.
    20. Barney Hartman‐Glaser & Benjamin Hébert, 2020. "The Insurance Is the Lemon: Failing to Index Contracts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(1), pages 463-506, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:chosxx:v:29:y:2014:i:3:p:339-361. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/chos20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.