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Some Scenarios for Russian Oil Exports up to 2020

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  • Rafael Fernández

Abstract

This article analyses the potential for Russian oil export growth through the next decade. It concludes that supply for exports will continue to grow, albeit moderately. The greater or lesser intensity of that growth will depend on the evolution of both production and internal consumption, and especially on the reaction by investors to sector changes promoted by government energy policy. From this analysis, we find three likely scenarios for Russian oil exports. The most positive envisages it will be possible to diversify exports while the most negative suggests that Russia will have scant opportunity to develop an export diversification strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Fernández, 2009. "Some Scenarios for Russian Oil Exports up to 2020," Europe-Asia Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 61(8), pages 1441-1459.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ceasxx:v:61:y:2009:i:8:p:1441-1459
    DOI: 10.1080/09668130903134830
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Grace, John D., 2005. "Russian Oil Supply: Performance and Prospects," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780197300305.
    2. Sadek Boussena & Catherine Locatelli, 2008. "The bases of a new organisation of the Russian oil sector: between private and State," Working Papers halshs-00003938, HAL.
    3. Ms. Katerina Kalcheva & Nienke Oomes, 2007. "Diagnosing Dutch Disease: Does Russia Have the Symptoms?," IMF Working Papers 2007/102, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vatansever, Adnan, 2017. "Is Russia building too many pipelines? Explaining Russia's oil and gas export strategy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-11.

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