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Indonesia's Non-Oil Export Performance During the Economic Crisis: Distinguishing Price Trends from Quantity Trends

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  • L. Peter Rosner

Abstract

Despite an enormous currency depreciation, the growth rate of Indonesia's non-oil exports, measured in dollars, did not accelerate during the first two years of the Asian crisis. In fact, during the second year of the crisis non-oil export value dropped sharply. This paper demonstrates that the main reason for the decline in the dollar value of non-oil exports was a collapse of export prices. Non-oil export dollar prices fell 26% between the second quarter of 1997 and the second quarter of 1999. Measured at constant prices, non-oil exports grew 24% and manufactured exports 31% during this period. Non-oil import prices fell by roughly the same amount as non-oil export prices during the crisis, with little change in the non-oil terms of trade. The decline in the price of traded goods significantly reduced the magnitude of the real exchange rate depreciation experienced by Indonesia.

Suggested Citation

  • L. Peter Rosner, 2000. "Indonesia's Non-Oil Export Performance During the Economic Crisis: Distinguishing Price Trends from Quantity Trends," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 61-95.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:bindes:v:36:y:2000:i:2:p:61-95
    DOI: 10.1080/00074910012331338893
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    1. Raden Pardede, 1999. "Survey of Recent Developments," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 3-40.
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    Cited by:

    1. Prema-Chandra Athukorala, 2002. "Survey Of Recent Developments," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 141-162.
    2. Dionisius Narjoko & Hal Hill, 2007. "Winners and Losers during a Deep Economic Crisis: Firm‐level Evidence from Indonesian Manufacturing," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 343-368, December.
    3. Siregar, Reza & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2004. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on Indonesia's trade performance in the 1990s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 218-240, June.
    4. Prema-Chandra Athukorala, 2006. "Post-crisis export performance: The Indonesian experience in regional perspective," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 177-211.
    5. Haryo Aswicahyono & Hal Hill & Dionisius Narjoko, 2010. "Industrialisation after a Deep Economic Crisis: Indonesia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(6), pages 1084-1108.
    6. Dionisius A. Narjoko & Raymond Atje, 2007. "The Effects of Agricultural Trade Liberalisation under the Doha Development Agenda with Special Reference to the Asia Pacific Region: A Brief Survey," Working Papers 3207, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
    7. Eric Ramstetter, 2000. "Survey of Recent Developments," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 3-47.

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