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Directly pricing VIX futures: the role of dynamic volatility and jump intensity

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  • Tianyi Wang
  • Sicong Cheng
  • Fangsheng Yin
  • Mei Yu

Abstract

We extend the direct pricing framework and propose a new generalized model for VIX futures by adding the time-varying component volatility as well as jump intensity to the logarithm of underlying VIX series. We also switch to the normal jump component on which the simpler and faster analytical filter can be applied. Compared with the nested benchmark models, these extensions are supported by significant pricing performance improvements both in- and out-of-sample. In particular, our generalized model can reduce the pricing errors substantially in the high VIX level period and for long maturity contracts. Our research highlights the importance of those newly added features of the VIX series when pricing VIX derivatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Tianyi Wang & Sicong Cheng & Fangsheng Yin & Mei Yu, 2022. "Directly pricing VIX futures: the role of dynamic volatility and jump intensity," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(32), pages 3678-3694, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:54:y:2022:i:32:p:3678-3694
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2021.2016592
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    Cited by:

    1. Gaoxiu Qiao & Gongyue Jiang, 2023. "VIX futures pricing based on high‐frequency VIX: A hybrid approach combining SVR with parametric models," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(9), pages 1238-1260, September.
    2. Anupam Dutta & Debojyoti Das, 2022. "Forecasting realized volatility: New evidence from time‐varying jumps in VIX," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(12), pages 2165-2189, December.
    3. Chen, Xiaoyi & Feng, JianFen & Wang, Tianyi, 2023. "Pricing VIX futures: A framework with random level shifts," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    4. Gongyue Jiang & Gaoxiu Qiao & Feng Ma & Lu Wang, 2022. "Directly pricing VIX futures with observable dynamic jumps based on high‐frequency VIX," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(8), pages 1518-1548, August.

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