IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v47y2015i32p3395-3413.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An assessment of inflation targeting in a quantitative monetary business cycle framework: evidence from four early adopters

Author

Listed:
  • Dooyeon Cho
  • Dong-Eun Rhee

Abstract

This article examines the effectiveness of inflation targeting (IT) to stabilize the real economy in advanced countries where IT was adopted in the early 1990s. To quantitatively assess IT, this article employs the monetary business cycle accounting methodology recently developed by Šustek (2011), which is an extended version of Chari, Kehoe, and McGrattan (2007), to monetary models. Our main finding is that the monetary policy wedge that captures economic fluctuations caused by monetary policy has significantly declined since the implementation of IT in the early 1990s. The results suggest that advanced economies, such as Australia, Canada, Sweden and the United Kingdom, that adopted IT in the early 1990s have been successful in stabilizing business cycle fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Dooyeon Cho & Dong-Eun Rhee, 2015. "An assessment of inflation targeting in a quantitative monetary business cycle framework: evidence from four early adopters," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(32), pages 3395-3413, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:47:y:2015:i:32:p:3395-3413
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1016206
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2015.1016206
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036846.2015.1016206?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    2. Brinca Pedro, 2013. "Monetary business cycle accounting for Sweden," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1085-1119, October.
    3. Soyoung Kim, 2003. "Monetary Policy Rules and Business Cycles," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(2), pages 221-245, June.
    4. Altig,David E. & Smith,Bruce D. (ed.), 2003. "Evolution and Procedures in Central Banking," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521814270, September.
    5. Alvaro Angeriz & Philip Arestis, 2008. "Assessing inflation targeting through intervention analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(2), pages 293-317, April.
    6. Ruy Lama, 2011. "Accounting for Output Drops in Latin America," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 295-316, April.
    7. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2006. "Appendices: Business cycle accounting," Staff Report 362, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    8. Svensson, L.E.O., 1994. "The Swedish Experiences of Inflation Target," Papers 587, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    9. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Open versus Closed Economies: An Integrated Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 248-252, May.
    10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Joshua M. Davis, 2006. "Two flaws in business cycle accounting," Working Paper Series WP-06-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    11. Canova, Fabio & Nicolo, Gianni De, 2002. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1131-1159, September.
    12. Dooyeon Cho & Antonio Doblas-Madrid, 2013. "Business Cycle Accounting East and West: Asian Finance and the Investment Wedge," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(4), pages 724-744, October.
    13. Chakraborty, Suparna, 2009. "The boom and the bust of the Japanese economy: A quantitative look at the period 1980-2000," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 116-131, January.
    14. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2009. "Does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 118-123, May.
    15. Erasmus Kersting, 2008. "The 1980s Recession in the UK: A Business Cycle Accounting Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 179-191, January.
    16. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Carare, Alina & Stone, Mark R., 2006. "Inflation targeting regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1297-1315, July.
    18. Lawrence J. Christiano & Joshua M. Davis, 2006. "Two flaws in business cycle dating," Working Papers (Old Series) 0612, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    19. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2007. "Business Cycle Accounting," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(3), pages 781-836, May.
    20. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 2010. "Inflation targeting and business cycle synchronization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 704-727, June.
    21. Peter M. Summers, 2005. "What caused the Great Moderation? : some cross-country evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 90(Q III), pages 5-32.
    22. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Goncalves, Carlos Eduardo S. & Salles, Joao M., 2008. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 312-318, February.
    24. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the business cycle changed?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 9-56.
    25. Simona Cociuba & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2008. "Driving Forces of the Canadian Economy: An Accounting Exercise," Staff Working Papers 08-14, Bank of Canada.
    26. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2007. "Does inflation targeting really make a difference? Evaluating the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2521-2533, November.
    27. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    28. Jacob A. Mincer, 1969. "Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number minc69-1.
    29. Goffe, William L. & Ferrier, Gary D. & Rogers, John, 1994. "Global optimization of statistical functions with simulated annealing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 65-99.
    30. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May.
    31. Ben S. Bernanke & Michael Woodford, 2004. "The Inflation-Targeting Debate," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bern04-1.
    32. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1996. "A Price Target for U.S. Monetary Policy? Lessons from the Experience with Money Growth Targets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 77-146.
    33. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Closed versus Open Economies: An Integrated Approach," NBER Working Papers 8604, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Carl E. Walsh, 2009. "Inflation Targeting: What Have We Learned?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 195-233, August.
    35. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dooyeon Cho & Dong‐Eun Rhee, 2024. "Determinants of market‐assessed sovereign default risk: Macroeconomic fundamentals or global shocks?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 35-60, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hirata, Hideaki & Otsu, Keisuke, 2016. "Accounting for the economic relationship between Japan and the Asian Tigers," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 57-68.
    2. Pedro Brinca & João Ricardo Costa Filho & Francesca Loria, 2024. "Business cycle accounting: What have we learned so far?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 1276-1316, September.
    3. Brinca, Pedro, 2014. "Distortions in the neoclassical growth model: A cross-country analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 1-19.
    4. Brinca, P. & Chari, V.V. & Kehoe, P.J. & McGrattan, E., 2016. "Accounting for Business Cycles," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1013-1063, Elsevier.
    5. Matheus Cardoso Leal & Marcio Issao Nakane, 2022. "Brazilian economy in the 2000’s: A tale of two recessions," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2022_20, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    6. Kutu Adebayo Augustine & Ngalawa Harold, 2017. "Monetary Policy and Industrial Output in the BRICS Countries: A Markov-Switching Model," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 17(2), pages 35-55, December.
    7. Tomás Marinozzi & Mariano Fernández, 2020. "Una breve revisón sobre la literatura de las metas de inflación," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 755, Universidad del CEMA.
    8. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2010. "Inflation Targeting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 22, pages 1237-1302, Elsevier.
    9. Otsu Keisuke, 2010. "A Neoclassical Analysis of the Asian Crisis: Business Cycle Accounting for a Small Open Economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-39, July.
    10. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271122, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    11. Dooyeon Cho & Antonio Doblas-Madrid, 2013. "Business Cycle Accounting East and West: Asian Finance and the Investment Wedge," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(4), pages 724-744, October.
    12. Cross, Jamie, 2019. "On the reduced macroeconomic volatility of the Australian economy: Good policy or good luck?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 174-186.
    13. Aymeric Ortmans, 2020. "Evolving Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Documents de recherche 20-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    14. Jiang, Dou, 2023. "Output drops in ASEAN-5 countries: A business cycle accounting perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    15. Huang, Ho-Chuan (River) & Yeh, Chih-Chuan, 2017. "Level, structure, and volatility of financial development and inflation targeting," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 108-124.
    16. Roman Sustek, 2011. "Monetary Business Cycle Accounting," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(4), pages 592-612, October.
    17. Arestis, Philip & Chortareas, Georgios & Magkonis, Georgios & Moschos, Demetrios, 2014. "Inflation targeting and inflation convergence: International evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 285-295.
    18. Jan Philipp Fritsche & Patrick Christian Harms, 2020. "Better off without the Euro? A Structural VAR Assessment of European Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1907, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Atsuyoshi Morozumi & Michael Bleaney & Zakari Mumuni, 2020. "Inflation targeting in low‐income countries: Does IT work?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 1529-1550, November.
    20. Hippolyte W. Balima & Eric G. Kilama & Rene Tapsoba, 2017. "Settling the Inflation Targeting Debate: Lights from a Meta-Regression Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2017/213, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:47:y:2015:i:32:p:3395-3413. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.