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Pricing fx forwards in OTC markets - new evidence for the pricing mechanism when faced with counterparty risk

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  • A. Leonhardt
  • A. W. Rathgeber
  • J. Stadler
  • S. Stöckl

Abstract

By using daily foreign exchange (fx) market data for five major currency pairs, this article shows that, especially since the beginning of the financial crisis, pricing of fx forwards has not matched the pricing formula derived from the covered interest rate parity (CIP). This corresponds to previous empirical results. Therefore, the CIP leads to systematic over- or underpricing. Overall, four statistically significant explanatory factors for this systematic over- or underpricing have been identified - the volatility in the difference between the interest rate levels, the spot price, the fx forward spread and the counterparty risk. In particular, the high significance of the counterparty risk demonstrates that pricing models for fx forwards should be reviewed.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Leonhardt & A. W. Rathgeber & J. Stadler & S. Stöckl, 2015. "Pricing fx forwards in OTC markets - new evidence for the pricing mechanism when faced with counterparty risk," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(27), pages 2860-2877, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:47:y:2015:i:27:p:2860-2877
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1011309
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Naohiko Baba & Frank Packer & Teppei Nagano, 2008. "The spillover of money market turbulence to FX swap and cross-currency swap markets," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    2. Niall Coffey & Warren B. Hrung & Asani Sarkar, 2009. "Capital constraints, counterparty risk, and deviations from covered interest rate parity," Staff Reports 393, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. De Santis, Roberto A., 2012. "The Euro area sovereign debt crisis: safe haven, credit rating agencies and the spread of the fever from Greece, Ireland and Portugal," Working Paper Series 1419, European Central Bank.
    4. Vergote, Olivier & Puigvert Gutiérrez, Josep Maria, 2012. "Interest rate expectations and uncertainty during ECB Governing Council days: Evidence from intraday implied densities of 3-month EURIBOR," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2804-2823.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marta Gómez-Puig & Mary Pieterse-Bloem & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2022. ""Dynamic connectedness between credit and liquidity risks in EMU sovereign debt markets"," IREA Working Papers 202217, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2022.
    2. Heidorn, Thomas & Mamadalizoda, Nekruz, 2019. "Investigating the cross currency basis in EURUSD and EURGBP," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 227, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.

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