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Common dynamics of nonenergy commodity prices and their relation to uncertainty

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  • Pilar Poncela
  • Eva Senra
  • Lya Paola Sierra

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to improve the empirical evidence on commodity prices in various dimensions. First, we attempt to identify the extent of comovements in 44 monthly nonenergy commodity price series in order to ascertain whether the increase in comovement is a recent term phenomenon. Second, we attempt to determine the role of uncertainty in determining comovements among nonenergy prices in the short run. We diagnose the overall comovement using a dynamic factor model estimated by principal components. A factor-augmented vector autoregressive approach is used to assess the relationship of fundamentals, financial and uncertainty variables with the comovement in commodity prices. We find a greater synchronization among raw materials since December 2003. Since that date, uncertainty has played an important role in determining short-run fluctuations in nonenergy raw material prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra & Lya Paola Sierra, 2014. "Common dynamics of nonenergy commodity prices and their relation to uncertainty," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(30), pages 3724-3735, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:46:y:2014:i:30:p:3724-3735
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.939377
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    Cited by:

    1. Chiara Casoli & Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti, 2022. "Permanent-Transitory decomposition of cointegrated time series via dynamic factor models, with an application to commodity prices [Commodity-price comovement and global economic activity]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(2), pages 494-514.
    2. Sipan Aslan & Ceylan Yozgatligil & Cem Iyigun, 2018. "Temporal clustering of time series via threshold autoregressive models: application to commodity prices," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 260(1), pages 51-77, January.
    3. Francisco Corona & Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2017. "Determining the number of factors after stationary univariate transformations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 351-372, August.
    4. Allayioti, Anastasia & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2024. "The role of comovement and time-varying dynamics in forecasting commodity prices," Working Paper Series 2901, European Central Bank.
    5. Raza, Syed Ali & Masood, Amna & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Urom, Christian, 2023. "Forecasting the volatility of precious metals prices with global economic policy uncertainty in pre and during the COVID-19 period: Novel evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    6. Mokni, Khaled & Al-Shboul, Mohammed & Assaf, Ata, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and dynamic spillover among precious metals under market conditions: Does COVID-19 have any effects?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Joseph P Byrne & Ryuta Sakemoto & Bing Xu, 2020. "Commodity price co-movement: heterogeneity and the time-varying impact of fundamentals [Oil price shocks and the stock market: evidence from Japan]," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 47(2), pages 499-528.
    8. Lya Paola Sierra & Luis Eduardo Girón & Victor Girón & Andrés Girón, 2018. "What is the Spillover Effect of the U.S. Equity and Money Market on the Key Latin American Agricultural Exports?," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 1-9, December.
    9. Srivastava, Mrinalini & Rao, Amar & Parihar, Jaya Singh & Chavriya, Shubham & Singh, Surendar, 2023. "What do the AI methods tell us about predicting price volatility of key natural resources: Evidence from hyperparameter tuning," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    10. Lya Paola Sierra & Luis Eduardo Gir n & Carolina Osorio, 2017. "Has Financialization in Commodity Markets Affected the Predictability in Metal Markets? The Efficient Markets Hypotheses for Metal Returns," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 15-22.
    11. Hedi Ben Haddad & Imed Mezghani & Abdessalem Gouider, 2021. "The Dynamic Spillover Effects of Macroeconomic and Financial Uncertainty on Commodity Markets Uncertainties," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-22, June.
    12. Muhammad Abubakr Naeem & Saqib Farid & Safwan Mohd Nor & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2021. "Spillover and Drivers of Uncertainty among Oil and Commodity Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-26, February.
    13. Pavel Kotyza & Katarzyna Czech & Michał Wielechowski & Luboš Smutka & Petr Procházka, 2021. "Sugar Prices vs. Financial Market Uncertainty in the Time of Crisis: Does COVID-19 Induce Structural Changes in the Relationship?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-16, January.
    14. Liao, Wenting & Ma, Jun & Zhang, Chengsi, 2024. "Commodity returns co-movement, uncertainty shocks, and the US dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    15. Pavel Vidal Alejandro & Lya Paola Sierra Suárez & Johana Sanabria Dominguez & Jaime Andres Collazos Rodríguez, 2015. "Indicador mensual de actividad económica (IMAE) para el Valle del Cauca," Borradores de Economia 13610, Banco de la Republica.
    16. Casoli, Chiara & Lucchetti, Riccardo (Jack), 2021. "Permanent-Transitory decomposition of cointegrated time series via Dynamic Factor Models, with an application to commodity prices," FEEM Working Papers 312367, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    17. Fabian Lutzenberger & Benedikt Gleich & Herbert G. Mayer & Christian Stepanek & Andreas W. Rathgeber, 2017. "Metals: resources or financial assets? A multivariate cross-sectional analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 927-958, November.
    18. Kakade, Kshitij Abhay & Mishra, Aswini Kumar, 2021. "The impact of macroeconomic and oil shocks on India’s non-ferrous metal prices: A structural-VAR approach," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 63, pages 30-50.
    19. Bernardina Algieri, 2021. "Fast & furious: Do psychological and legal factors affect commodity price volatility?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 980-1017, April.
    20. Lya Paola Sierra Suárez & Jaime Andrés Collazos-Rodríguez & Johana Sanabria-Domínguez & Pavel Vidal-Alejandro, 2017. "La construcción de indicadores de la actividad económica: una revisión bibliográfica," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 36(64), pages 79-107, October.
    21. Mensi, Walid & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Dynamic and frequency spillovers between green bonds, oil and G7 stock markets: Implications for risk management," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 331-344.
    22. Md Rafayet Alam & Scott Gilbert, 2017. "Monetary policy shocks and the dynamics of agricultural commodity prices: evidence from structural and factor†augmented VAR analyses," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 48(1), pages 15-27, January.

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