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Expected returns and expected dividend growth: time to rethink an established empirical literature

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  • Jun Ma
  • Mark E. Wohar

Abstract

This article examines various state-space and VAR model specifications to investigate the contributions of expected returns and expected dividend growth to movements in the price-dividend ratio. We show that both models involve serious inference problems that need to be dealt with carefully. We propose procedures that offer more reliable inference results, and the corrected inferences indicate that the aggregate data of dividends and returns alone do not provide strong enough evidence to support the notion that the expected returns dominate the stock price variation. However, we show that an alternative measure of cash flows termed the net payout by Larrain and Yogo (2008) appears to lend strong support to the notion that the expected cash flow explains a large fraction of the firm value variation. This finding remains robust in both state-space and VAR decompositions with the corrected inference.

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  • Jun Ma & Mark E. Wohar, 2014. "Expected returns and expected dividend growth: time to rethink an established empirical literature," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(21), pages 2462-2476, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:46:y:2014:i:21:p:2462-2476
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.899674
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    1. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mazur, Mieszko & Dang, Man & Vo, Thuy Anh Thi, 2020. "Dividend Policy and the COVID-19 Crisis," MPRA Paper 108765, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mittal, Amit & Garg, Ajay Kumar, 2021. "Bank stocks inform higher growth—A System GMM analysis of ten emerging markets in Asia," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 210-220.
    3. Ma, Jun & Wohar, Mark E., 2014. "Determining what drives stock returns: Proper inference is crucial: Evidence from the UK," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 371-390.
    4. Dooruj Rambaccussing, 2021. "The price–rent ratio inequality in Scottish Cities: fluctuations in discount rates and expected rent growth," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(9), pages 1-15, September.
    5. Mittal, Amit & Garg, Ajay Kumar, 2018. "Bank stocks inform higher growth – A System GMM analysis of ten emerging markets in Asia," MPRA Paper 98253, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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