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An empirical analysis of the relationship between economic development and population growth in China

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  • Wanjun Yao
  • Tomoko Kinugasa
  • Shigeyuki Hamori

Abstract

China has experienced a dramatic demographic transition since the latter half of the twentieth century, and thus, assessing the global economic implications is an important issue. This article uses time-series data on China to estimate the determinants of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. According to the results of the presented co-integration analysis, population has a significantly negative impact on GDP per capita, while savings rate, total factor productivity and degree of industrialization have significantly positive impacts on GDP per capita. These results suggest that the share of the working-age population relative to the total population does not have a strong influence on GDP per capita. Therefore, the contribution of the working-age population to economic growth might not be as large as previously assumed. It is also possible that an increase in savings, remarkable industrialization and rapid technological progress have all stimulated economic growth in China greatly.

Suggested Citation

  • Wanjun Yao & Tomoko Kinugasa & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2013. "An empirical analysis of the relationship between economic development and population growth in China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(33), pages 4651-4661, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:45:y:2013:i:33:p:4651-4661
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2013.795284
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    1. Md. Saiful Islam & Saleh Saud Alsaif & Talal Alsaif, 2022. "Trade Openness, Government Consumption, and Economic Growth Nexus in Saudi Arabia: ARDL Cointegration Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, May.
    2. Ajit Kumar Singh, 2021. "Population Growth and Economic Development: Theoretical Arguments and Empirical Findings— A Survey of Literature," Indian Journal of Human Development, , vol. 15(3), pages 486-502, December.
    3. Zhang Wei-Bin, 2014. "Land Value and Rent Dynamics in an Integrated Walrasian General Equilibrium and Neoclassical Growth Theory," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 61(2), pages 235-258, December.
    4. Tsangyao Chang & Hsiao-Ping Chu & Frederick W. Deale & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2017. "The relationship between population growth and standard-of-living growth over 1870–2013: evidence from a bootstrapped panel Granger causality test," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 175-201, February.
    5. Sayef Bakari & Mohamed Mabrouki & Abdelhafidh Othmani, 2018. "The Six Linkages Between Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investment, Exports, Imports, Labor Force And Economic Growth: New Empirical And Policy Analysis From Nigeria," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 3(1), pages 25-43, Juin.
    6. Wei-Bin Zhang, 2014. "Capital and Knowledge: Integrating Arrow’s Learning-by-Doing, the Walrasian Equilibrium Theory and Neoclassical Growth Theory," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 3(2), pages 267-293, December.
    7. Wei-Bin Zhang, 2017. "Economic Growth and Structural Change ? A Synthesis of the Walrasian General Equilibrium, Ricardian Distribution and Neoclassical Growth Theories," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(1), pages 17-36, March.
    8. Wei-Bin Zhang, 2014. "Environmental Dynamics in an Integrated Walrasian-General Equilibrium and Neoclassical-Growth Theory," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 39(3), pages 51-80, September.
    9. Md. Saiful Islam & Ibrahim A. Alhamad, 2023. "Do personal remittance outflows impede economic growth in Saudi Arabia? The role of trade, labor force, human, and physical capital," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    10. Aribah Aslam, 2020. "The hotly debate of human capital and economic growth: why institutions may matter?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1351-1362, August.
    11. Marinko Škare & Sanja Blaževic, 2015. "Population and Economic Growth: A Review Essay," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 17(40), pages 1036-1036, August.
    12. Chen Kong San & Lee Chin, 2023. "Impact of Public Debt on Economic Growth: A Quantile Regression Approach," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 12(2), pages 250-278, December.
    13. Wei-Bin ZHANG, 2015. "Tourism, Trade And Wealth Accumulation With Endogenous Income And Wealth Distribution Among Countries," EcoForum, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 4(1), pages 1-1, January.
    14. Prof. Wei-Bin Zhang, 2015. "Economic Oscillations in a Multi-Country Growth Model with Free Trade and Tourism," Eurasian Business & Economics Journal, Eurasian Academy Of Sciences, vol. 2(2), pages 1-19, July.
    15. E. Wesley F. Peterson, 2017. "The Role of Population in Economic Growth," SAGE Open, , vol. 7(4), pages 21582440177, October.
    16. Tsangyao Chang & Hsiao-Ping Chu & Frederick W. Deale & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2014. "The Relationship between Population Growth and Economic Growth Over 1870-2013: Evidence from a Bootstrapped Panel-Granger Causality Test," Working Papers 201431, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    17. Fumitaka Furuoka, 2018. "Is population beneficial to economic growth? An empirical study of China," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 209-225, January.
    18. Supper Roland Okijie & Ubong Edem Effiong, 2021. "Ascertaining the Optimal Population Growth Threshold for Nigeria’s Economic Development," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 5(6), pages 43-50, June.
    19. Meng, Xin, 2023. "China's 40 Years Demographic Dividend and Labor Supply: The Quantity Myth," IZA Discussion Papers 16207, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Mkadmi, Jamel Eddine & Bakari, Sayef & Msai, Achwak, 2021. "Assessing the Impact of Tax Policies on Economic Growth in Tunisia: New Empirical and Policy Analysis," MPRA Paper 109023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Silvia London & Gastón Cayssials & Fernando Antonio Ignacio González, 2022. "Population growth and economic growth: a panel causality analysis," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4574, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    22. Zhang, W.-B., 2014. "Ethnic Human Capital Externalities and Inequality in a General Equilibrium Growth Model," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 21(1), pages 33-54.
    23. Wei-Bin Zhang, 2014. "Growth and inequality examined by integrating the Walrasian general equilibrium and neoclassical growth theories," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 7(1), pages 7-32, April.
    24. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-477 is not listed on IDEAS

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