IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v43y2011i23p3187-3201.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The dynamic impact of macroeconomic factors on initial public offerings: evidence from time-series analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Anh Tran
  • Bang Nam Jeon

Abstract

This article examines the explanatory power and the dynamic impact of macroeconomic conditions on Initial Public Offering (IPO) activities in US during the period from 1970 to 2005. Applying time-series econometric techniques, we find the existence of long-run equilibrium relationships between IPO activities and selected macroeconomic variables. Stock market performance and volatility are shown to play the most important role in the timing of IPOs. The Fed funds rate and the 10 year US Treasury Bond (TB) yield play a comparable role in determining the amount of proceeds raised in the IPOs. There also exist different short-run dynamic adjustment mechanisms between IPOs and macroeconomic factors towards the long run equilibrium path and they are mostly completed within the period of 6 months to 1 year. The results have some useful implications for forecasting IPO activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Anh Tran & Bang Nam Jeon, 2011. "The dynamic impact of macroeconomic factors on initial public offerings: evidence from time-series analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(23), pages 3187-3201.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:43:y:2011:i:23:p:3187-3201
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840903493267
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840903493267
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036840903493267?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michelle Lowry & G. William Schwert, 2002. "IPO Market Cycles: Bubbles or Sequential Learning?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1171-1200, June.
    2. Jay R. Ritter & Ivo Welch, 2002. "A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing, and Allocations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1795-1828, August.
    3. Lowry, Michelle, 2003. "Why does IPO volume fluctuate so much?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 3-40, January.
    4. Ritter, Jay R, 1984. "The "Hot Issue" Market of 1980," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(2), pages 215-240, April.
    5. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    6. K. Gleason & J. Johnston & J. Madura, 2008. "What factors drive IPO aftermarket risk?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(13), pages 1099-1110.
    7. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. "Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
    8. Lee, Bong-Soo, 1992. "Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Interest Rates, Real Activity, and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1591-1603, September.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    10. Gompers, Paul & Lerner, Josh, 2000. "Money chasing deals? The impact of fund inflows on private equity valuation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 281-325, February.
    11. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    12. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R. & Rydqvist, Kristian, 1995. "Initial public offerings: International insights," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 139-140, May.
    13. Ibbotson, Roger G & Jaffe, Jeffrey F, 1975. ""Hot Issue" Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(4), pages 1027-1042, September.
    14. Luigi Zingales, 1995. "Insider Ownership and the Decision to Go Public," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 62(3), pages 425-448.
    15. Chemmanur, Thomas J & Fulghieri, Paolo, 1999. "A Theory of the Going-Public Decision," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 249-279.
    16. Lerner, Joshua, 1994. "Venture capitalists and the decision to go public," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 293-316, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Waqas Mehmood & Rasidah Mohd-Rashid & Abd Halim Ahmad, 2023. "The Variability of IPO Issuance: Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 24(5), pages 1025-1040, October.
    2. Adra, Samer, 2021. "The conventional and informational impacts of monetary policy on the IPO market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    3. Eliana Angelini & Matteo Foglia, 2018. "The Relationship Between IPO and Macroeconomics Factors: an Empirical Analysis from UK Market," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(1), pages 319-336, May.
    4. Premti, Arjan & Madura, Jeff, 2013. "Motives and consequences of IPOs in cold periods," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 486-496.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oehler, Andreas & Rummer, Marco & Smith, Peter N., 2004. "IPO Pricing and the Relative Importance of Investor Sentiment: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 26, University of Bamberg, Chair of Finance.
    2. Jean Helwege & J. Nellie Liang, 2003. "Initial public offerings in hot and cold markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Subadar Agathee, Ushad & Brooks, Chris & Sannassee, Raja Vinesh, 2012. "Hot and cold IPO markets: The case of the Stock Exchange of Mauritius," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 168-192.
    4. Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2003. "Stock Prices and IPO Waves," NBER Working Papers 9858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Signori, Andrea, 2018. "Zero-revenue IPOs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 106-121.
    6. Jay R. Ritter & Ivo Welch, 2002. "A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing, and Allocations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1795-1828, August.
    7. Boeh, Kevin & Dunbar, Craig, 2014. "IPO waves and the issuance process," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 455-473.
    8. Reber, Beat, 2017. "Does mispricing, liquidity or third-party certification contribute to IPO downside risk?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 25-53.
    9. Annette B. Poulsen & Mike Stegemoller, 2008. "Moving from Private to Public Ownership: Selling Out to Public Firms versus Initial Public Offerings," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 37(1), pages 81-101, March.
    10. Maria Borges, 2007. "Underpricing of Initial Public Offerings: The Case of Portugal," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 13(1), pages 65-80, February.
    11. Troy Pollard, 2016. "Sneaking in the back door? An evaluation of reverse mergers and IPOs," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 305-341, August.
    12. Grammenos, Costas Th. & Papapostolou, Nikos C., 2012. "US shipping initial public offerings: Do prospectus and market information matter?," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 276-295.
    13. Helwege, Jean & Packer, Frank, 2009. "Private matters," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 362-383, July.
    14. Muhammad Zubair Mumtaz & Zachary Alexander Smith, 2018. "IPOs in the U.S. from 2005 to 2015: Using the Spline Regression Technique to Estimate Aggregate Issuance and Performance," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(2), pages 165-199, April.
    15. Ljungqvist, Alexander & Boehmer, Ekkehart, 2004. "On the decision to go public: Evidence from privately-held firms," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,16, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Michel, Allen & Oded, Jacob & Shaked, Israel, 2014. "Ownership structure and performance: Evidence from the public float in IPOs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 54-61.
    17. Franck Bancel & Usha R. Mittoo, 2013. "Survey evidence: what do we know about European and US firms’ motivations for going public?," Chapters, in: Mario Levis & Silvio Vismara (ed.), Handbook of Research on IPOs, chapter 3, pages 57-75, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. repec:kap:iaecre:v:13:y:2007:i:1:p:65-80 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Marcato, Gianluca & Milcheva, Stanimira & Zheng, Chen, 2018. "Market integration, country institutions and IPO underpricing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 87-105.
    20. Giulia Baschieri & Andrea Carosi & Stefano Mengoli, 2023. "Local IPO waves, local shocks, and the going public decision," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2565-2589, July.
    21. Baxamusa, Mufaddal & Jalal, Abu, 2018. "Industry networks and IPO waves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 129-146.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:43:y:2011:i:23:p:3187-3201. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.