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Exchange rate volatility and exports from East Asian countries to Japan and the USA

Author

Listed:
  • Saang Joon Baak
  • M. A. Al-Mahmood
  • S. Vixathep

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports in four East Asian countries (Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, and Thailand). Specifically, this article aims at determining whether the bilateral real exchange rate volatility between an East Asian country and its trading partner negatively affects the exports of the East Asian country. Considering the dominant roles of the USA and Japan as trading partners of those East Asian countries, this article focuses on the quarterly export volumes of East Asian countries to the US and Japan for the period from 1981 to 2004. Except for the case of Hong Kong's exports to Japan, cointegration tests and estimations of error correction models indicate exchange rate volatility has negative impacts on exports either in the short-run or in the long-run, or both. On the other hand, the real GDP of importing countries and depreciation of real bilateral exchange rates turn out, in general, to have positive effects. Of special interest is the finding that the impact of the exchange rate volatility does not show any stylized differences depending on whether the importing country is Japan or the USA, even though dollar invoicing dominates in East Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Saang Joon Baak & M. A. Al-Mahmood & S. Vixathep, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility and exports from East Asian countries to Japan and the USA," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(8), pages 947-959.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:39:y:2007:i:8:p:947-959
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840500474231
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shinji Takagi, 1999. "The Yen and Its East Asian Neighbors 1980-1995: Cooperation or Competition?," NBER Chapters, in: Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues, pages 185-210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. SaangJoon Baak, 2001. "Japanese Yen and East-Asia Currencies: Before and After the Asian Financial Crisis," Working Papers EMS_2001_04, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    3. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2000. "Exchange Rate Effects on the Volume of Trade Flows: An Empirical Analysis Employing High-Frequency Data," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 5B.1, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
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