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An empirical analysis of stock returns around dividend changes

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  • Rakesh Bali

Abstract

This paper documents significant drift in stock returns following announcements of changes in cash dividends. The magnitude is (i) smaller for increases than for decreases, (ii) inversely related to firm size and positively to dividend yield change, and (iii) concentrated in the first quarter. Beta changes do not explain the drift and it is robust in various subperiods. Next it is shown that dividend increases are positively autocorrelated especially every fourth quarter. The prices keep reacting to future announcements as if the market ignores these autocorrelations. Dividend decreases exhibit weak autocorrelation and the returns are negative for the following three announcements.

Suggested Citation

  • Rakesh Bali, 2003. "An empirical analysis of stock returns around dividend changes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 51-61.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:1:p:51-61
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684020158930
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    Cited by:

    1. Ali, Heba & Hegazy, Aya Yasser, 2022. "Dividend policy, risk and the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from India," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 169-192.
    2. Li‐Kai Liao & Yu‐Wei Fan & Ming‐Hsin Shih, 2020. "What drives social responsibility indices returns? Macroeconomics matters," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(2), pages 514-524, March.
    3. Andre C Vianna, 2017. "Effects of Bush Tax Cut and Obama Tax Increase on corporate payout policy and stock returns," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(3), pages 441-462, July.
    4. Yi-Mien Lin & Yun-Sheng Hsu & Shieh-Liang Chen, 2009. "Cash-flow news, market liquidity and liquidity risk," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(9), pages 1137-1156.
    5. Shaif Jarallah & Wali Ullah, 2014. "Evolving corporate governance and the dividends behaviour regime in Japan," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 61(3), pages 279-303, September.
    6. Darakhshan Younis & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2014. "Market Imperfections and Dividend Policy Decisions of Manufacturing Sector of Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2014:99, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    7. Al-Malkawi, Husam-Aldin Nizar & Bhatti, M. Ishaq & Magableh, Sohail I., 2014. "On the dividend smoothing, signaling and the global financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 159-165.
    8. Matthias Nnadi & Nyema Wogboroma & Bariyima Kabel, 2013. "Determinants of Dividend Policy: Evidence from Listed Firms in the African Stock Exchanges," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(6), pages 725-741, December.
    9. Chanchal Chatterjee & Paromita Dutta, 2017. "Price Behaviour Around Dividend Announcements in the Indian Equity Market in the Existence of Corporate Dividend Tax," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(2), pages 402-415, April.

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