IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v34y2002i1p119-132.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A multivariate cointegrated model testing for temporal causality between exports and outward foreign investment: the Spanish case

Author

Listed:
  • M. T. Alguacil
  • V. Orts

Abstract

Historically, outward foreign direct investment has been contemplated as an alternative way of firms' internationalization. In this line, a relational substitution between exports and foreign direct investment would be expected. However, this seems to contrast with recent developments in the 'new trade theory' which show that the volume of trade and the emergence of multinational firms may be positively related one to the other. This paper investigates if some empirical evidence exists either supporting a substitution or a complementary relationship between both forms of internationalization. With this aim, an aggregate time series approach was adopted using quarterly aggregate data (seasonal adjusted) from the Spanish economy covering the period 1970.I-1992.III. A vector autoregressive model was employed for both multivariate cointegration analysis and Granger temporal causality testing. The strength and direction of causal relationships are shown through the dynamic variance decomposition and the impulse response technique. Once controlling for relative market size and prices, the results provide evidence of a positive long-term Granger causality going from foreign direct investment to exports, although not in the opposite direction.

Suggested Citation

  • M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2002. "A multivariate cointegrated model testing for temporal causality between exports and outward foreign investment: the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 119-132.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:34:y:2002:i:1:p:119-132
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840110046818
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840110046818
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036840110046818?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. Lael Brainard, 1993. "An Empirical Assessment of the Factor Proportions Explanation of Multi-National Sales," NBER Working Papers 4583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. S. Lael Brainard, 1993. "A Simple Theory of Multinational Corporations and Trade with a Trade-Off Between Proximity and Concentration," NBER Working Papers 4269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Verónica Cañal-Fernández & Julio Tascón Fernández, 2018. "The long run impact of foreign direct investment, exports, imports and GDP: evidence for Spain from an ARDL approach," Working Papers 0128, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    2. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen D Mora, 2015. "On the employment effects of outward FDI: the case of Spain, 1995-2011," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(21), pages 2127-2141, May.
    3. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2003. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Imports in Spain," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 19-38.
    4. Martin Falk & Mariya Hake, 2008. "A Panel Data Analysis on FDI and Exports," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 34229.
    5. Sieds, 2012. "Complete Volume LXVI n.1 2012," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 66(1), pages 1-296.
    6. Nasir SELIMI, & Valdrina SELIMI, 2017. "The Effects Of Exchange Rate On Economic Growth In The Republic Of Macedonia," EcoForum, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 6(3), pages 1-8, august.
    7. Fr餩ric Laurin, 2012. "Trade and regional growth in Spain: panel cointegration in a small sample," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(4), pages 435-447, February.
    8. Pradhan, Jaya Prakash, 2007. "How Do Indian Multinationals Affect Exports from Home Country?," MPRA Paper 19022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Florentina Viorica GHEORGHE & Artur - Emilian SIMION, 2018. "The link between international trade flows of "Machinery and transport equipment" and foreign direct investment in Romania," Computational Methods in Social Sciences (CMSS), "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 6(1), pages 42-54, June.
    10. Drogendijk, Rian & Martín Martín, Oscar, 2015. "Relevant dimensions and contextual weights of distance in international business decisions: Evidence from Spanish and Chinese outward FDI," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 133-147.
    11. Murman Budijanto & Bagus Rachman, 2010. "Foreign direct investment and one digit standard international trade classicification," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 2(3), pages 265-276, April.
    12. Henri Bezuidenhout & Wim Naudé, 2008. "Foreign Direct Investment and Trade in the Southern African Development Community," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-88, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Kemal Türkcan, 2011. "Vertical Intra-Industry Trade and Product Fragmentation in the Auto-Parts Industry," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 149-186, June.
    14. repec:wsr:ecbook:2008:i:i-012 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrzej Cieślik, 2020. "What attracts multinational enterprises from the new EU member states to Poland?," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(2), pages 253-269, June.
    2. Markusen, James R. & Venables, Anthony J. & Eby Konan, Denise & Zhang, Kevin H., 1996. "A Unified Treatment of Horizontal Direct Investment, Vertical Direct Investment, and the Pattern of Trade in Goods and Services," Working Paper Series 465, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    3. Erdey, László, 2004. "A működőtőke-áramlás a telephelyválasztás elméletének tükrében [The flow of operating capital in the light of the theory of location choice]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 472-494.
    4. James R. Markusen & Keith E. Maskus, 2001. "General-Equilibrium Approaches to the Multinational Firm: A Review of Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Andrzej Cieslik & Mahdi Ghodsi, 2021. "Economic sentiment indicators and foreign direct investment: Empirical evidence from European Union countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 168, pages 56-75.
    6. Andrzej Cieślik, 2020. "Determinants of foreign direct investment from OECD countries in Poland," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(1), pages 9-25, March.
    7. James R. Markusen & Anthony J. Venables, 1996. "Multinational Production, Skilled Labor and Real Wages," NBER Working Papers 5483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Gurshev Oleg, 2019. "What determines foreign direct investment in Russia?," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 6(53), pages 311-322, January.
    9. Mathä, Thomas, 2000. "Proximity-Concentration versus Factor Proportion Explanation: The Case of Swedish Multinationals in the EU," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 416, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 08 Dec 2000.
    10. Felipa De Mello-Sampayo, 2007. "The Location of the United States' FDI Under the Share Gravity Model," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 491-519.
    11. Cieślik Andrzej, 2019. "Determinants of foreign direct investment from EU-15 Countries in Poland," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 6(53), pages 39-52, January.
    12. David L. Carr & James R. Markusen & Keith E. Maskus, 2021. "Estimating The Knowledge-Capital Model of the Multinational Enterprise," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 5, pages 95-110, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. M.T. Alguacil & V. Orts, "undated". "A multivariate cointegrated model testing for temporal causality between exports and outward FDI: The Spanish case," Studies on the Spanish Economy 50, FEDEA.
    14. Felipa Mello Sampayo, 2006. "The Geographic Distribution of Economic Activities of the USA Multinational Enterprises," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_040, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    15. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka & Chi-Wa Yuen, 1999. "An Information-Based Model of Foreign Direct Investment: The Gains from Trade Revisited," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 579-596, November.
    16. Pamela Bombarda, 2016. "Firm heterogeneity and the localization of economic activities," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95, pages 1-26, March.
    17. TANI Naoki & OGAWA Eiji, 2024. "Firms' Internationalization Decisions and Demand Learning," Discussion papers 24019, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    18. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2003. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Imports in Spain," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 19-38.
    19. Chakraborty, Debashis & Mukherjee, Jaydeep & Lee, Jaewook, 2016. "Do FDI Inflows influence Merchandise Exports? Causality Analysis on India over 1991-2016," MPRA Paper 74851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Jungnickel, Rolf & Borrmann, Christine & Keller, Dietmar, 2005. "What gravity models can tell us about the position of German FDI in Central and Eastern Europe," HWWA Discussion Papers 328, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:34:y:2002:i:1:p:119-132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.