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Defence spending, economic growth and temporal causality: evidence from Taiwan and mainland China, 1952-1995

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  • Tsangyao Chang
  • Wenshwo Fang
  • Li-Fang Wen
  • Chwenchi Liu

Abstract

This paper uses a cointegration analysis and a vector autoregressive model (VAR) to examine the causal relationship between defence spending and economic growth for Taiwan and Mainland China over the period 1952-1995. It is found that these two variables are not cointegrated for both countries studied. The results of the Granger causality tests suggest bidirectional Granger causality (feedback) between defence spending and economic growth for Taiwan, unidirectional Granger causality running from economic growth to defence spending for Mainland China, and unidirectional Granger causality running from Taiwan's defence spending to Mainland China's defence spending for cross-country studied. These results further indicate that there exists no arms race between two countries from both sides of Taiwan strait. Furthermore, impulse responses and variance decompositions are incorporated into the analysis. The results from the impulse responses and variance decompositions tell a similar story.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsangyao Chang & Wenshwo Fang & Li-Fang Wen & Chwenchi Liu, 2001. "Defence spending, economic growth and temporal causality: evidence from Taiwan and mainland China, 1952-1995," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(10), pages 1289-1299.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:33:y:2001:i:10:p:1289-1299
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840122529
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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Shahbaz & Naceur Khraief & Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Saleheen Khan, 2018. "Are Fluctuations in Military Spending Transitory or Permanent? International Evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(2), pages 1198-1212.
    2. Chien-Chiang Lee & Sheng-Tung Chen, 2007. "Non-Linearity In The Defence Expenditure - Economic Growth Relationship In Taiwan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(6), pages 537-555.
    3. Christos Kollias & Suzanna‐Maria Paleologou, 2010. "Growth, investment and military expenditure in the European Union‐15," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(2), pages 228-240, May.
    4. Rock-Antoine Mehanna, 2004. "An Econometric Contribution to the U.S. Defense—Growth Nexus: Evidence from Error Correction Model," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 21(2), pages 121-131, April.
    5. Yemane Wolde-Rufael, 2016. "Defence Spending and Income Inequality in Taiwan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 871-884, November.
    6. Seemab Gillani & Muhammad Nouman Shafiq & Tusawar Iftikhar Ahmad, 2019. "Military Expenditures and Health Outcomes: A Global Perspective," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 1(1), pages 1-20, June.
    7. Luqman, Muhammad & Antonakakis, Nikolaos, 2021. "Guns better than butter in Pakistan? The dilemma of military expenditure, human development, and economic growth," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    8. Charles Shaaba Saba & Nicholas Ngepah, 2022. "Nexus between defence spending, economic growth and development: evidence from a disaggregated panel data analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 109-151, February.
    9. Seemab Gillani & Muhammad Nouman Shafiq & Tusawar Iftikhar Ahmad, 2019. "Military Expenditures and Health Outcomes: A Global Perspective," iRASD Journal of Energy and Environment, International Research Association for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 1(1), pages 1-20, June.
    10. King, Cheng & Du, Jane, 2018. "China’s first priority in post-war state building: A wealthy state, or a strong army?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 851-872.
    11. Chia-I Pan & Tsangyao Chang & Yemane Wolde-Rufael, 2015. "Military Spending and Economic Growth in the Middle East Countries: Bootstrap Panel Causality Test," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 443-456, August.
    12. Tsai-Yuan Huang & Po-Chin Wu & Shiao-Yen Liu, 2017. "Defense–Growth Causality: Considerations of Regime-Switching and Time- and Country-Varying Effects," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 568-584, September.
    13. Chen, Pei-Fen & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2014. "The nexus between defense expenditure and economic growth: New global evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 474-483.
    14. Saba Charles Shaaba, 2022. "Defence Spending and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence from Cointegration and Co-Feature Analysis," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 28(1), pages 51-100, February.
    15. Tsangyao Chang & Chien-Chiang Lee & Hsiao-Ping Chu, 2015. "Revisiting the Defense-Growth nexus in European countries," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 341-356, June.
    16. Ming Zhong & Tsangyao Chang & Samrat Goswami & Rangan Gupta & Tien-Wei Lou, 2017. "The nexus between military expenditures and economic growth in the BRICS and the US: an empirical note," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 609-620, September.
    17. Ourania Dimitraki & Faek Menla Ali, 2015. "The Long-run Causal Relationship Between Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in China: Revisited," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 311-326, June.
    18. Ming Zhong & Tsangyao Chang & Samrat Goswami & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "The Nexus between Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in the BRICS and the US: A Bootstrap Panel Causality Test," Working Papers 201449, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    19. Henryk Gurgul & Łukasz Lach & Roland Mestel, 2012. "The relationship between budgetary expenditure and economic growth in Poland," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 20(1), pages 161-182, March.
    20. Chen Bing-Fu & Zhao Liming, 2006. "The Determinants of China's Defense Expenditure Before and After Transition," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 23(3), pages 227-244, July.
    21. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khraief, Naceur & Kumar Mahalik, Mantu & Khan, Saleheen, 2018. "Military Spending Response to Defense Shocks? International Evidence," MPRA Paper 87362, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Jun 2018.
    22. Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, Łukasz, 2011. "Causality analysis between public expenditure and economic growth of Polish economy in last decade," MPRA Paper 52281, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Bi-Huei Tsai, 2017. "Predicting the competitive relationships of industrial production between Taiwan and China using Lotka–Volterra model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(25), pages 2428-2442, May.
    24. Liming Zhao & Liang Zhao & Bing-Fu Chen, 2017. "The interrelationship between defence spending, public expenditures and economic growth: evidence from China," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 703-718, November.

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