IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v32y2000i3p315-326.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing for rational expectations in the UK National Lottery

Author

Listed:
  • David Forrest
  • O. David Gulley
  • Robert Simmons

Abstract

The concept of rational expectations has typically been assumed, without testing, in the analysis of consumer demand and market efficiency in betting markets, including betting on lottery games. Lottery games offer an excellent opportunity to test how participants process the information that is available to them. Using the UK National Lottery as our particular case, we find that participants, in general, efficiently process available information. Specifically, they act as if they can, on average, forecast the level of sales for a given drawing.

Suggested Citation

  • David Forrest & O. David Gulley & Robert Simmons, 2000. "Testing for rational expectations in the UK National Lottery," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 315-326.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:32:y:2000:i:3:p:315-326
    DOI: 10.1080/000368400322741
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/000368400322741
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/000368400322741?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jen-Hung Wang & Larry Tzeng & Junji Tien, 2006. "Willingness to pay and the demand for lotto," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1207-1216.
    2. Baker, Rose & Forrest, David & Pérez, Levi, 2020. "Modelling demand for lotto using a novel method of correcting for endogeneity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 302-308.
    3. Humphreys, Brad & Perez, Levi, 2011. "Lottery Participants and Revenues: An International Survey of Economic Research on Lotteries," Working Papers 2011-17, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    4. Lionel Page, 2012. "‘It ain’t over till it's over.’ Yogi Berra bias on prediction markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 81-92, January.
    5. Alejandro Díaz & Levi Pérez, 2021. "Setting The Odds Of Winning The Jackpot: On The Economics Of (Re) Designing Lottery Games," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(1), pages 168-177, January.
    6. Akira Maeda, 2008. "Optimal Lottery Design for Public Financing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1698-1718, October.
    7. M. Forster & E. Randon, 2019. "Do lottery operators exploit their lottery power? Efficiency and equality considerations in optimal lottery design," Working Papers wp1135, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    8. Chin-Tsai Lin & Chien-Hua Lai, 2006. "Substitute effects between Lotto and Big Lotto in Taiwan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(10), pages 655-658.
    9. Martijn J. Burger & Martijn Hendriks & Emma Pleeging & Jan C. Ours, 2020. "The joy of lottery play: evidence from a field experiment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 23(4), pages 1235-1256, December.
    10. Ian Walker & Rhys Wheeler, 2018. "The Decline and Fall of UK Lotto," Working Papers 247054751, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    11. Brad Humphreys & Levi Perez, 2012. "Network externalities in consumer spending on lottery games: evidence from Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 929-945, June.
    12. Forrest, David & Gulley, O. David & Simmons, Robert, 2000. "Elasticity of Demand for UK National Lottery Tickets," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 53(n. 4), pages 853-64, December.
    13. Forrest, David & Gulley, O. David & Simmons, Robert, 2000. "Elasticity of Demand for UK National Lottery Tickets," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 53(4), pages 853-864, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:32:y:2000:i:3:p:315-326. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.