IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apmtfi/v1y1994i2p129-164.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Market oscillations induced by the competition between value-based and trend-based investment strategies

Author

Listed:
  • G. Caginalp
  • D. Balenovich

Abstract

We consider financial market using mathematical models which incorporate an excess demand function that depends not only upon the price but on the price derivative. The classical (value-based) motivation for purchasing the equity is augmented with a trend-based strategy of buying due to rising prices. An analysis (based on money flow and the finiteness of assets) of the supply, demand and price as a function of time leads to a system of ordinary differential equations which is mathematically complete. The numerical study of our equations exhibits overshooting, abrupt reversals and oscillations in prices. We examine our models within the context of real markets and economic laboratory experiments by comparing its predictions with a set of Porter and Smith experiments and with all US stock market “crashes” since 1929.

Suggested Citation

  • G. Caginalp & D. Balenovich, 1994. "Market oscillations induced by the competition between value-based and trend-based investment strategies," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 129-164.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apmtfi:v:1:y:1994:i:2:p:129-164
    DOI: 10.1080/13504869400000009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13504869400000009
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/13504869400000009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ross M. Miller & Charles R. Plott & Vernon L. Smith, 1977. "Intertemporal Competitive Equilibrium: An Empirical Study of Speculation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 91(4), pages 599-624.
    2. Deneckere, Raymond & Pelikan, Steve, 1986. "Competitive chaos," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 13-25, October.
    3. Brock, W. A., 1986. "Distinguishing random and deterministic systems: Abridged version," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 168-195, October.
    4. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-1181, September.
    5. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-395, June.
    6. Plott, Charles R, 1986. "Rational Choice in Experimental Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 301-327, October.
    7. Williams, Arlington W & Smith, Vernon L, 1984. "Cyclical Double-Auction Markets with and without Speculators," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 1-33, January.
    8. Friedman, Daniel & Harrison, Glenn W & Salmon, Jon W, 1984. "The Informational Efficiency of Experimental Asset Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(3), pages 349-408, June.
    9. T. Randolph Beard & Richard O. Beil, 1994. "Do People Rely on the Self-Interested Maximization of Others? An Experimental Test," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(2), pages 252-262, February.
    10. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    11. Forsythe, Robert & Palfrey, Thomas R & Plott, Charles R, 1982. "Asset Valuation in an Experimental Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 537-567, May.
    12. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1981. "Information aggregation in a noisy rational expectations economy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 221-235, September.
    13. David Porter & Vernon Smith, 1994. "Stock market bubbles in the laboratory," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 111-128.
    14. Admati, Anat R, 1985. "A Noisy Rational Expectations Equilibrium for Multi-asset Securities Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 629-657, May.
    15. Day, Richard H. & Huang, Weihong, 1990. "Bulls, bears and market sheep," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 299-329, December.
    16. Williams, Arlington W, 1987. "The Formation of Price Forecasts in Experimental Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(1), pages 1-18, February.
    17. Hellwig, Martin F., 1980. "On the aggregation of information in competitive markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 477-498, June.
    18. Boldrin, Michele & Montrucchio, Luigi, 1986. "On the indeterminacy of capital accumulation paths," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 26-39, October.
    19. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-1151, September.
    20. Rosenthal, Robert W., 1981. "Games of perfect information, predatory pricing and the chain-store paradox," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 92-100, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mark DeSantis & David Swigon, 2018. "Slow-fast analysis of a multi-group asset flow model with implications for the dynamics of wealth," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(11), pages 1-25, November.
    2. Karl Ludwig Keiber, 2008. "Price discovery in the presence of boundedly rational agents," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 235-249.
    3. Mizuta, Hideyuki & Steiglitz, Ken & Lirov, Erez, 2003. "Effects of price signal choices on market stability," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 235-251, October.
    4. Caginalp, Gunduz & Porter, David & Smith, Vernon, 2000. "Momentum and overreaction in experimental asset markets," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 187-204, January.
    5. Din Prathumwan & Wannika Sawangtong & Panumart Sawangtong, 2017. "An Analysis on the Fractional Asset Flow Differential Equations," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-17, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Linn, Scott C. & Stanhouse, Bryan E., 1997. "The economic advantage of least squares learning in a risky asset market," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 303-319.
    2. Hirota, Shinichi & Sunder, Shyam, 2007. "Price bubbles sans dividend anchors: Evidence from laboratory stock markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1875-1909, June.
    3. Charles N. Noussair & Steven Tucker, 2013. "Experimental Research On Asset Pricing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 554-569, July.
    4. Nuzzo, Simone & Morone, Andrea, 2017. "Asset markets in the lab: A literature review," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 42-50.
    5. Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2003. "Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1406, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. Heemeijer, Peter & Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2009. "Price stability and volatility in markets with positive and negative expectations feedback: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1052-1072, May.
    7. Keser, Claudia & Markstädter, Andreas, 2014. "Informational asymmetries in laboratory asset markets with state-dependent fundamentals," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 207, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    8. Corgnet, Brice & DeSantis, Mark & Porter, David, 2020. "The distribution of information and the price efficiency of markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    9. Inoua, Sabiou M. & Smith, Vernon L., 2023. "A classical model of speculative asset price dynamics," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    10. Eldad Yechiam & Amitay Kauffmann & Nathaniel J S Ashby & Gal Zahavi, 2017. "On the relation between economic bubbles and effort gaps between sellers and buyers: An experimental study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(12), pages 1-15, December.
    11. Cars Hommes & Florian Wagener, 2008. "Complex Evolutionary Systems in Behavioral Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-054/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. Keser, Claudia & Markstädter, Andreas, 2014. "Informational asymmetries in laboratory asset markets with state-dependent fundamentals," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 207 [rev.], University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    13. Felipe Zurita, 2001. "Speculation in Financial Markets: A Survey," Documentos de Trabajo 197, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    14. Mizuta, Hideyuki & Steiglitz, Ken & Lirov, Erez, 2003. "Effects of price signal choices on market stability," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 235-251, October.
    15. Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler & Matthias Sutter, 2006. "Vom Nutzen zusätzlicher Information auf Märkten mit unterschiedlich informierten Händlern — Eine experimentelle Studie," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 188-211, March.
    16. Marquardt, Philipp & Noussair, Charles N & Weber, Martin, 2019. "Rational expectations in an experimental asset market with shocks to market trends," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 116-140.
    17. Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2003. "Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets Capital Adequacy Regulation: In Search of a Rationale," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-06, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    18. Halim, Edward & Riyanto, Yohanes Eko & Roy, Nilanjan, 2016. "Price Dynamics and Consumption Smoothing in Experimental Asset Markets," MPRA Paper 71631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Lunawat, Radhika, 2021. "Learning from trading activity in laboratory security markets with higher-order uncertainty," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    20. Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2018. "Efficiently Inefficient Markets for Assets and Asset Management," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 1663-1712, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apmtfi:v:1:y:1994:i:2:p:129-164. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAMF20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.