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Stock return predictability or mismeasured risk?

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  • A. D. Clare
  • R. Priestley
  • S. H. Thomas

Abstract

We investigate the predictable component of excess returns in German, Japanese, UK and US aggregate stock indices, finding evidence to suggest that the frequently documented predictable component in excess returns is predominantly due to a failure in previous research to consider risk.

Suggested Citation

  • A. D. Clare & R. Priestley & S. H. Thomas, 1997. "Stock return predictability or mismeasured risk?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(6), pages 679-687.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:7:y:1997:i:6:p:679-687
    DOI: 10.1080/758533860
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. McAleer, Michael & Fisher, Gordon, 1982. "Testing separate regression models subject to specification error," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 125-145, May.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Campbell, John Y & Hamao, Yasushi, 1992. "Predictable Stock Returns in the United States and Japan: A Study of Long-Term Capital Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 43-69, March.
    4. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December.
    5. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.
    6. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
    7. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. "The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
    8. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:661-76 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Clare, Andrew D & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Thomas, Stephen H, 1995. "An Analysis of Seasonality in the U.K. Equity Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 398-409, March.
    10. Clare, A. D. & Thomas, S. H., 1992. "International evidence for the predictability of bond and stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 105-112, September.
    11. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    12. Clare, A.D. & Thomas, S.H., 1992. "International evidence for the predictability of bond and stock returns," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9206, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    13. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ekaterini Tsouma, 2007. "Stock return dynamics and stock market interdependencies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(10), pages 805-825.

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