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An Analysis of Seasonality in the U.K. Equity Market

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  • Clare, Andrew D
  • Psaradakis, Zacharias
  • Thomas, Stephen H

Abstract

This paper examines the nature and importance of seasonal fluctuations in the U.K. equity market. The authors' analysis reveals that returns on the FT-A All Share index exhibit significant seasonality that is best described by a deterministic seasonal model. The authors also establish that evidence of seasonal variation is robust across size sorted portfolios and remains unaffected by the introduction of a proxy for risk. Copyright 1995 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Clare, Andrew D & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Thomas, Stephen H, 1995. "An Analysis of Seasonality in the U.K. Equity Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 398-409, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:105:y:1995:i:429:p:398-409
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    Cited by:

    1. Pesaran, M.H., 2010. "Predictability of Asset Returns and the Efficient Market Hypothesis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1033, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Jeffrey Jarrett & Eric Kyper, 2006. "Capital market efficiency and the predictability of daily returns," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(6), pages 631-636.
    3. Patricia Fraser & Foort Hamelink & Martin Hoesli & Bryan Macgregor, 2004. "Time-varying betas and the cross-sectional return-risk relation: evidence from the UK," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 255-276.
    4. Michael Reutter & Jakob Von Weizsacker & Frank Westermann, 2002. "SeptemBear - A seasonality puzzle in the German stock index DAX," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 765-769.
    5. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770415, January.
    6. Qiwei Chen & Lisa Jack & Andrew Wood, 2007. "Tax-loss selling and seasonal effects in the UK," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(13), pages 1027-1035.
    7. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
    8. A. D. Clare & R. Priestley & S. H. Thomas, 1997. "Stock return predictability or mismeasured risk?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(6), pages 679-687.
    9. Rayenda Brahmana & Chee-Wooi Hooy & Zamri Ahmad, 2012. "Weather, investor irrationality and day-of-the-week anomaly: case of Indonesia," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 129-146, July.
    10. Muhammad Surajo Sanusi & Farooq Ahmad, 2016. "An analysis of seasonality fluctuations in the oil and gas stock returns," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1128133-112, December.
    11. Grieb, Terrance & Reyes, Mario G., 2002. "The temporal relationship between large- and small-capitalization stock returns:: Evidence from the UK," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 109-118.
    12. Terrance Grieb & Mario G. Reyes, 2002. "The temporal relationship between large‐ and small‐capitalization stock returns:," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), pages 109-118.
    13. Ian McManus & Owain Ap Gwilym & Stephen Thomas, 2004. "The Role of Payout Ratio in the Relationship Between Stock Returns and Dividend Yield," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(9‐10), pages 1355-1387, November.
    14. Menyah, Kojo, 1999. "New evidence on the impact of size and taxation on the seasonality of UK equity returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 11-24, June.
    15. N Aslanidis & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices: How important is the US market?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 27, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    16. Krzysztof Borowski, 2016. "Analysis Of Monthly Rates Of Return In April On The Example Of Selected World Stock Exchange Indices," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(2), pages 307-325, June.
    17. Andrew Clare & Ian Garrett & Greg Jones, 1997. "Testing for seasonal patterns in conditional return volatility: evidence from Asia-Pacific markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(5), pages 517-523.
    18. J. Andrew Coutts & Peter Hayes, 1999. "The weekend effect, the Stock Exchange Account and the Financial Times Industrial Ordinary Shares Index: 1987-1994," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 67-71.
    19. Albertson, Kevin & Aylen, Jonathan, 1999. "Forecasting using a periodic transfer function: with an application to the UK price of ferrous scrap," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 409-419, October.
    20. Nektarios Aslanidis & Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices:," Working Papers 0302, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    21. Morgan, Gareth & Thomas, Stephen, 1998. "Taxes, dividend yields and returns in the UK equity market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 405-423, May.
    22. Qiwei Chen & Ying Jiang & Yuan Li, 2012. "The state of the market and the contrarian strategy: evidence from China's stock market," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 89-108, September.

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