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Technical analysis, trading volume and market efficiency: evidence from an emerging market

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  • A. Antoniou
  • N. Ergul
  • P. Holmes
  • R. Priestley

Abstract

Although there is a widespread belief that stock markets are weak-form efficient, technical analysis is a pervasive activity. The extent is examined to which this apparent paradox can be explained by conditioning the past sequence of prices on the past sequence of volume. A unique data set from an emerging market reveals that, for a number of companies in the sample, returns appear to conform to the weak-form version of the efficient markets hypothesis. However, when returns are conditioned on past levels of volume, current returns on over half of these companies exhibit predictability. This is particularly true from companies with low trading volumes.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Antoniou & N. Ergul & P. Holmes & R. Priestley, 1997. "Technical analysis, trading volume and market efficiency: evidence from an emerging market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 361-365.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:7:y:1997:i:4:p:361-365
    DOI: 10.1080/096031097333475
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Metghalchi, Massoud & Chen, Chien-Ping & Hayes, Linda A., 2015. "History of share prices and market efficiency of the Madrid general stock index," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 178-184.
    2. Stephanie Kremer & Dieter Nautz, 2013. "Short†term Herding of Institutional Traders: New Evidence from the German Stock Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 19(4), pages 730-746, September.
    3. Farhang Niroomand & Massoud Metghalchi & Massomeh Hajilee, 2020. "Efficient market hypothesis: a ruinous implication for Portugese stock market," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(4), pages 749-763, October.
    4. Yung-Ho Chang & Massoud Metghalchi & Chia-Chung Chan, 2006. "Technical trading strategies and cross-national information linkage: the case of Taiwan stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 731-743.
    5. Yonatan Berman & Yoash Shapira & Eshel Ben-Jacob, 2014. "Unraveling Hidden Order in the Dynamics of Developed and Emerging Markets," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(11), pages 1-10, November.
    6. Selim Tuzunturk, 2009. "The relationship between volatility and volume on the Istanbul stock exchange," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(3), pages 289-304.
    7. P. C. Kumar & George Tsetsekos, 1999. "The differentiation of 'emerging' equity markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 443-453.
    8. Darrat, Ali F & Zhong, Maosen, 2000. "On Testing the Random-Walk Hypothesis: A Model-Comparison Approach," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 35(3), pages 105-124, August.
    9. Kremer, Stephanie & Nautz, Dieter, 2011. "Short-term herding of institutional traders: New evidence from the German stock market," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-015, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    10. Akbar, Muhammad & Ullah, Ihsan & Ali, Shahid & Rehman, Naser, 2024. "Adaptive market hypothesis: A comparison of Islamic and conventional stock indices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 460-477.
    11. Gunduz Caginalp & Mark DeSantis, 2019. "Nonlinear price dynamics of S&P 100 stocks," Papers 1907.04422, arXiv.org.
    12. Vassiliy Chsherbakov, 2010. "Efficiency of Use of Technical Analysis: Evidences from Russian Stock Market," Ekonomika a Management, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2010(4).
    13. Caginalp, Gunduz & DeSantis, Mark, 2020. "Nonlinear price dynamics of S&P 100 stocks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 547(C).
    14. Pegah Dehghani & Ros Zam Zam Sapian, 2014. "Sectoral herding behavior in the aftermarket of Malaysian IPOs," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 227-246, July.
    15. Funk, Samuel M. & Zook, James E. & Featherstone, Allen M., 2008. "Chicago Board of Trade Ethanol Contract Efficiency," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6811, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    16. Kremer, Stephanie, 2010. "Herding of institutional traders," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-025, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.

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