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On the validity of the weak-form efficient markets hypothesis applied to the London stock exchange

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  • Nabeel Al-Loughani
  • David Chappell

Abstract

The validity of the weak form of the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) is tested for the FTSE 30 share index during a period when government economic policy towards the financial markets was relatively unchanging. The EMH would suggest random walk behaviour but this does not occur; instead the data series has significant heteroscedasticity. The series is successfully explained by a GARCH M(1, 1) model. We use the BDS test to show that the residuals from this model are IID.

Suggested Citation

  • Nabeel Al-Loughani & David Chappell, 1997. "On the validity of the weak-form efficient markets hypothesis applied to the London stock exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 173-176.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:7:y:1997:i:2:p:173-176
    DOI: 10.1080/096031097333736
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Myung Jig Kim & Charles R. Nelson & Richard Startz, 1991. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices? A Reappraisal of the Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 515-528.
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    2. Geoff Willcocks, 2009. "UK Housing Market: Time Series Processes with Independent and Identically Distributed Residuals," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 403-414, November.
    3. repec:wyi:journl:002167 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Gozbasi, Onur & Kucukkaplan, Ilhan & Nazlioglu, Saban, 2014. "Re-examining the Turkish stock market efficiency: Evidence from nonlinear unit root tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 381-384.
    5. Alexandros E. Milionis, 2019. "A simple return generating model in discrete time; implications for market efficiency testing," Working Papers 259, Bank of Greece.
    6. Ilhan KUCUKKAPLAN & Emre KILIC & Sevket PAZARCI & Asım KAR, 2023. "Testing the Efficient Market Hypothesis in G8 Countries: New evidence from Unit Root Tests with Fourier Shifts," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-18, January.
    7. Ren, Yu & Xiong, Cong & Yuan, Yufei, 2012. "House price bubbles in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 786-800.
    8. Kian-Ping Lim & Robert Brooks, 2009. "On the validity of conventional statistical tests given evidence of nonsynchronous trading and nonlinear dynamics in returns generating process: a further note," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 649-652.
    9. Erdas Mehmet Levent, 2019. "Validity of Weak-Form Market Efficiency in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs): Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Unit Root Tests," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 19(4), pages 399-428, December.
    10. Müge Özdemir, 2022. "Analyzing the Efficient Market Hypothesis with the Structural Break and Nonlinear Unit Root Tests: An Application on Borsa Istanbul," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(37), pages 257-282, December.
    11. Zouhaier Dhifaoui, 2022. "Determinism and Non-linear Behaviour of Log-return and Conditional Volatility: Empirical Analysis for 26 Stock Markets," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 11(1), pages 69-94, June.
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    14. ASGHAR, Zahid, 2008. "Energy–Gdp Relationship: A Causal Analysis For The Five Countries Of South Asia," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(1), pages 167-180.

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