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Black and official exchange rate volatility and foreign exchange controls

Author

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  • Kate Phylaktis
  • Yiannis Kassimatis

Abstract

Autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (ARCH) and generalized ARCH (GARCH) models are applied to foreign currencies that are traded in both official and black markets using monthly rates in a group of Pacific Basin countries. It is shown that (i) in contrast to the observation of other studies using monthly rates, ARCH/GARCH processes characterize all exchange rate series in both markets; (ii) the relaxation of foreign exchange controls increased the volatility of exchange rates in official markets as implied by theoretical analysis; and (iii) the persistence of volatility is reduced when account is taken of the discrete change in policy on foreign exchange controls.

Suggested Citation

  • Kate Phylaktis & Yiannis Kassimatis, 1997. "Black and official exchange rate volatility and foreign exchange controls," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 15-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:7:y:1997:i:1:p:15-24
    DOI: 10.1080/096031097333817
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    Cited by:

    1. Panayiotis Diamandis & Georgios Kouretas & Leonidas Zarangas, 2005. "Expectations and the black market premium for foreign currency in Greece," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 667-677.
    2. Mohsen Fardmanesh & Seymour Douglas, 2003. "Foreign Exchange Controls, Fiscal and Monetary Policy, and the Black Market Premium," Working Papers 876, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    3. Mina Baliamoune-Lutz, 2010. "Black and official exchange rates in Morocco: an analysis of their long-run behaviour and short-run dynamics (1974-1992)," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(27), pages 3481-3490.
    4. Angelos Kanas & Georgios P. Kouretas, 2001. "Volatility Spillovers Between The Black Market And Official Market For Foreign Currency In Greece," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(3), pages 443-461, September.
    5. Mohsen Fardmanesh & Seymour Douglas, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Controls and the Parallel Market Premium," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 72-89, February.

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