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A default prediction model for Italian SMEs: the relevance of the capital structure

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  • M. Modina
  • F. Pietrovito

Abstract

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) play a fundamental role in the economy of many countries, including Italy. The simplicity of the financial structure of Italian SMEs, relying mostly on bank loans, makes them riskier than their larger counterparts and this induces banks to develop default prediction models specifically addressing the management of SMEs' credit relationship. Building on this framework, this article aims to analyse the determinants of the default probability of a sample of 9208 Italian limited liabilities SMEs in a time frame of 3 years, over the period 2006 to 2010. Specifically, this article adopts a logistic regression model estimated on a database provided by the Centrale Rischi Finanziari (CRIF), an Italian credit rating agency. The results show that, among the observable financial and economic characteristics of the firms, the capital structure (both in terms of internal and external funds and in terms of the source of external financing) and interest expenses are more relevant than economic variables as determinants of SMEs' default.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Modina & F. Pietrovito, 2014. "A default prediction model for Italian SMEs: the relevance of the capital structure," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(23), pages 1537-1554, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:24:y:2014:i:23:p:1537-1554
    DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2014.927566
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Ciampi & Alessandro Giannozzi & Giacomo Marzi & Edward I. Altman, 2021. "Rethinking SME default prediction: a systematic literature review and future perspectives," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(3), pages 2141-2188, March.
    2. Carmen Gallucci & Vincenzo Formisano & Michele Modina & Rosalia Santulli, 2017. "Beyond Banks¡¯ Capitalization: What Affects the Credit Lines?," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 8(4), pages 71-79, October.
    3. Caselli, Stefano & Corbetta, Guido & Cucinelli, Doriana & Rossolini, Monica, 2021. "A survival analysis of public guaranteed loans: Does financial intermediary matter?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    4. Agostino, Mariarosaria & Errico, Lucia & Rondinella, Sandro & Trivieri, Francesco, 2023. "Enduring lending relationships and european firms default," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(4), pages 459-477.
    5. Lisa Crosato & Caterina Liberati & Marco Repetto, 2021. "Look Who's Talking: Interpretable Machine Learning for Assessing Italian SMEs Credit Default," Papers 2108.13914, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    6. Agnese Rapposelli & Giuliana Birindelli & Michele Modina, 2024. "The relationship between firm size and efficiency: why does default on bank loans matter?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 3379-3401, August.
    7. Concepción de la Fuente-Cabrero & Mónica de Castro-Pardo & Rosa Santero-Sánchez & Pilar Laguna-Sánchez, 2019. "The Role of Mutual Guarantee Institutions in the Financial Sustainability of New Family-Owned Small Businesses," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-15, November.
    8. Mark Ojeme & Ogechi Adeola, 2023. "The relationship between business and bank: the role of perceived injustice in complaint behaviour," Journal of Financial Services Marketing, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 28(2), pages 396-409, June.
    9. Aneta Ptak-Chmielewska, 2021. "Bankruptcy prediction of small- and medium-sized enterprises in Poland based on the LDA and SVM methods," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 179-195, March.
    10. Ptak-Chmielewska Aneta, 2021. "Bankruptcy prediction of small- and medium-sized enterprises in Poland based on the LDA and SVM methods," Statistics in Transition New Series, Statistics Poland, vol. 22(1), pages 179-195, March.

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