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Heterogeneous behaviours and the effectiveness of central bank intervention in the yen/dollar exchange market

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  • Chung-Wei Kao
  • Jer-Yuh Wan

Abstract

A nonlinear heterogeneous agent model is applied to the yen/dollar exchange rate market to discuss the channels of an effective central bank intervention. The existence of two hypothetical channels proposed by Hung (1997) and Taylor (2004, 2005) are tested and confirmed. Evidence shows heterogeneous agents are active in the yen/dollar market where the stabilizing force from the fundamentalists declines in large misalignments. Central bank intervention is effective in arousing the trend-reversing sentiment among chartists to prevent market from explosion. The intervention is also effective in strengthening fundamentalists’ confidence that the market will move toward its theoretical equilibrium. The intervention has significant effects on fundamentalists’ confidence, regardless of whether the forecasting method relies on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) only or on a PPP plus Uncovered Interest rate Parity (UIP) condition. The interest rate differential can affect the exchange rate changes through influencing demand orders of the short-run fundamentalists.

Suggested Citation

  • Chung-Wei Kao & Jer-Yuh Wan, 2012. "Heterogeneous behaviours and the effectiveness of central bank intervention in the yen/dollar exchange market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(12), pages 967-975, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:22:y:2012:i:12:p:967-975
    DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2011.633887
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    1. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 409-430, November.
    2. Ronald Macdonald & Mark P. Taylor, 1992. "Exchange Rate Economics: A Survey," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(1), pages 1-57, March.
    3. Juann H. Hung, 1991. "The effectiveness of sterilized U.S. foreign exchange intervention, an empirical study based on the noise trading approach," Research Paper 9118, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. repec:bla:ecorec:v:0:y:1986:i:0:p:24-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Edison, H.J., 1993. "The Effectiveness of Central-Bank Intervention: A Survey of the Litterature after 1982," Princeton Studies in International Economics 18, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    6. Juann H. Hung, 1991. "Noise trading and the effectiveness of sterilized foreign exchange intervention," Research Paper 9111, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2018. "Can the interaction between a single long-term attractor and heterogeneous trading explain exchange rate behaviour? A nonlinear econometric investigation," MPRA Paper 83894, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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