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Third country news in the monetary model of the exchange rate

Author

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  • John Jackson
  • Henry Thompson
  • Juliet Zheng

Abstract

With third country bonds added to the monetary model of exchange rate news, third country news would have a theoretical effect on exchange rate news. The present paper uncovers empirical evidence of third country (USA) news for a number of exchange rates. Further, insignificant income, interest rate, and inflation variables in the two country model become significant with third country news, suggesting model misspecification. The unexplained variance of exchange rates may not be due to speculative bubbles as supposed, and foreign exchange markets may not be as efficient as they have appeared.

Suggested Citation

  • John Jackson & Henry Thompson & Juliet Zheng, 2005. "Third country news in the monetary model of the exchange rate," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(11), pages 757-764.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:15:y:2005:i:11:p:757-764
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100500108139
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1983. "The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 67-112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2002. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: new evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 359-385, December.
    3. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    4. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bernhard, Severin & Ebner, Till, 2017. "Cross-border spillover effects of unconventional monetary policies on Swiss asset prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 109-127.

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