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Efficient estimation and testing of oil futures contracts in a mutual offset system

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  • M. McAleer
  • J. M. Sequeira

Abstract

With the globalization of financial and commodity markets, it is becoming increasingly important to recognize price linkages between markets beyond national boundaries. Models of futures pricing that incorporate such price linkages into the information set can be expected to be superior empirically. Test results obtained in the paper support this proposition strongly in the case of Brent crude oil futures contracts traded in a mutual offset system between the Singapore International Monetary Exchange (SIMEX) and the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE). Augmented models of SIMEX Brent futures contracts are obtained by incorporating the previous day's IPE Brent futures price into the equation system for the unbiased expectations and the cost-of-carry hypotheses, whereas augmented models of IPE Brent futures contracts are obtained by incorporating the same day's SIMEX Brent futures price in the system for the two hypotheses. On the basis of tests of zero restrictions, the system for the augmented unbiased expectations hypothesis is found to be superior empirically to the system for the standard Unbiased Expectations hypothesis, and the augmented cost-of-carry system is also found to be superior empirically to the standard cost-of-carry system for both SIMEX Brent futures and IPE Brent futures contracts.

Suggested Citation

  • M. McAleer & J. M. Sequeira, 2004. "Efficient estimation and testing of oil futures contracts in a mutual offset system," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(13), pages 953-962.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:14:y:2004:i:13:p:953-962
    DOI: 10.1080/0960310042000284687
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    1. Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Cointegration between oil spot and future prices of the same and different grades in the presence of structural change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1687-1693, May.
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Davide Ciferri & Alessandro Girardi, 2014. "Time-Varying Spot and Futures Oil Price Dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(1), pages 78-97, February.
    3. Robert Czudaj & Joscha Beckmann, 2012. "Spot and futures commodity markets and the unbiasedness hypothesis - evidence from a novel panel unit root test," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1695-1707.
    4. E. Mamatzakis, 2014. "Revealing asymmetries in the loss function of WTI oil futures market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 411-426, September.
    5. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Regime-dependent adjustment in energy spot and futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 400-409.
    6. Mamatzakis, E & Remoundos, P, 2010. "Threshold Cointegration in BRENT crude futures market," MPRA Paper 19978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Mamatzakis, E. & Remoundos, P., 2011. "Testing for adjustment costs and regime shifts in BRENT crude futures market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1000-1008, May.
    8. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zeng, Jhih-Hong, 2011. "Revisiting the relationship between spot and futures oil prices: Evidence from quantile cointegrating regression," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 924-935, September.
    9. Kolodziej, Marek & Kaufmann, Robert K., 2013. "The role of trader positions in spot and futures prices for WTI," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 176-182.
    10. Lin, Xiaoqiang & Tang, Zhenpeng & Fei, Fangyu, 2013. "Testing for relationships between Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets: A threshold cointegration perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(18), pages 4064-4074.

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