IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apfiec/v13y2003i1p23-35.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impulse responses in a threshold cointegrated system: the case of natural gas markets

Author

Listed:
  • T. H. Root
  • D. Lien

Abstract

The response of a futures contract to an exogenous shock may partially depend upon the maturity of the contract. Investigation of the speed with which the contract returns to its long run equilibrium is dependent upon the time series specification of the contract. This paper estimates generalized impulse response functions that result from exogenous shocks to a threshold error correction model of the natural gas futures market. The estimation results of the threshold model indicate that it is an appropriate model of the natural gas futures market. Therefore the calculation of impulse responses should account for both the size of the shock and the history of the series. This is accomplished via a generalized impulse response function. Calculation of the generalized impulse response functions indicates that the length of the futures contract is an important determinant of the ability of the system to return to its long run equilibrium following a shock.

Suggested Citation

  • T. H. Root & D. Lien, 2003. "Impulse responses in a threshold cointegrated system: the case of natural gas markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 23-35.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:13:y:2003:i:1:p:23-35
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100110090226
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09603100110090226
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/09603100110090226?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Martens & Paul Kofman & Ton C. F. Vorst, 1998. "A threshold error-correction model for intraday futures and index returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 245-263.
    2. Obstfeld, Maurice & Taylor, Alan M., 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 441-479, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David G. McMillan, 2003. "Non‐linear Predictability of UK Stock Market Returns," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 557-573, December.
    2. Goodwin, Barry K. & Grennes, Thomas J. & Craig, Lee A., 2002. "Mechanical Refrigeration and the Integration of Perishable Commodity Markets," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 154-182, April.
    3. Kim, Bong-Han & Chun, Sun-Eae & Min, Hong-Ghi, 2010. "Nonlinear dynamics in arbitrage of the S&P 500 index and futures: A threshold error-correction model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 566-573, March.
    4. Stephen Norman, 2016. "Attractor misspecification and threshold estimation bias," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 1911-1921.
    5. McMillan, David G., 2005. "Smooth-transition error-correction in exchange rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 217-232, August.
    6. David G. McMillan, 2009. "Non-linear interest rate dynamics and forecasting: evidence for US and Australian interest rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 139-155.
    7. Li, Ming-Yuan Leon, 2008. "Clarifying the dynamics of the relationship between option and stock markets using the threshold vector error correction model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 511-520.
    8. Root, Thomas H. & Lien, Donald, 2003. "Can modeling the natural gas futures market as a threshold cointegrated system improve hedging and forecasting performance?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 117-133.
    9. Angela J. Black & David G. McMillan, 2004. "Non‐linear Predictability of Value and Growth Stocks and Economic Activity," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3‐4), pages 439-474, April.
    10. McMillan, David G., 2007. "Non-linear forecasting of stock returns: Does volume help?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 115-126.
    11. Angela J. Black & David G. McMillan, 2004. "Non‐linear Predictability of Value and Growth Stocks and Economic Activity," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3‐4), pages 439-474, April.
    12. McMillan, David G., 2005. "Non-linear dynamics in international stock market returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 81-91.
    13. repec:bla:econom:v:72:y:2005:i:3:p:413-430 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. David McMillan, 2004. "Non-linear predictability of UK stock market returns," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 63, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    15. David G. McMillan, 2005. "Non‐linear dynamics in international stock market returns," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(1), pages 81-91.
    16. Ming-Yuan Leon Li, 2009. "Nonlinear interrelations between ADRs and their underlying stocks revisited: application of threshold VECM," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(18), pages 1867-1873.
    17. Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
    18. Tolga Omay & Aysegul Corakci & Esra Hasdemir, 2021. "High Persistence and Nonlinear Behavior in Financial Variables: A More Powerful Unit Root Testing in the ESTAR Framework," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(20), pages 1-21, October.
    19. Anderson Michael A. & Schaefer Kurt C. & Smith Stephen L. S., 2013. "Can Price Dispersion Reveal Distance-Related Trade Costs? Evidence from the United States," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 151-173, June.
    20. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Sergio Luis Schmukler & Neeltje Van Horen, 2006. "International Financial Integration through the Law of One Price," Business School Working Papers 2006-01, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    21. Parsley, David & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2008. "In search of a euro effect: Big lessons from a Big Mac Meal?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 260-276, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:13:y:2003:i:1:p:23-35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.