IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apfiec/v12y2002i6p395-403.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Margin requirements, positive feedback trading, and stock return autocorrelations: the case of Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Toshiaki Watanabe

Abstract

This article examines the pattern of autocorrelation of daily stock index returns in the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) by estimating the two variants of the EGARCH model by Nelson (1991). We confirm the findings by Sentana and Wadhwani (1992) and Koutmos (1997) that stock returns exhibit positive autocorrelation when volatility is low but they exhibit negative autocorrelation when volatility is rather high, and that stock returns are more negatively autocorrelated after price declines than after price rises. Evidence is also found that an increase in margin requirements makes stock returns more positively autocorrelated, which contrasts with Sentana and Wadhwani (1992) who were unable to detect any effect of margin requirements on the autocorrelation of returns in the US stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Toshiaki Watanabe, 2002. "Margin requirements, positive feedback trading, and stock return autocorrelations: the case of Japan," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6), pages 395-403.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:12:y:2002:i:6:p:395-403
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100110090163
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09603100110090163
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/09603100110090163?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hsieh, David A & Miller, Merton H, 1990. "Margin Regulation and Stock Market Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 3-29, March.
    2. Scholes, Myron & Williams, Joseph, 1977. "Estimating betas from nonsynchronous data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-327, December.
    3. Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil B, 1992. "Feedback Traders and Stock Return Autocorrelations: Evidence from a Century of Daily Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(411), pages 415-425, March.
    4. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    5. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    6. Scheinkman, Jose A & LeBaron, Blake, 1989. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 311-337, July.
    7. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
    8. Gikas A. Hardouvelis & Stavros Peristiani, 1992. "Margin Requirements, Speculative Trading, and Stock Price Fluctuations: The Case of Japan," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(4), pages 1333-1370.
    9. LeBaron, Blake, 1992. "Some Relations between Volatility and Serial Correlations in Stock Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 199-219, April.
    10. Lo, Andrew W. & Craig MacKinlay, A., 1990. "An econometric analysis of nonsynchronous trading," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 181-211.
    11. Schwert, C.W., 1989. "Margin Requirements And Stock Volatility," Papers t6, Columbia - Center for Futures Markets.
    12. Koutmos, Gregory, 1997. "Feedback trading and the autocorrelation pattern of stock returns: further empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 625-636, August.
    13. Mech, Timothy S., 1993. "Portfolio return autocorrelation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 307-344, December.
    14. Christie, Andrew A., 1982. "The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 407-432, December.
    15. Conrad, Jennifer & Kaul, Gautam, 1988. "Time-Variation in Expected Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(4), pages 409-425, October.
    16. Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew P & Whitelaw, Robert F, 1994. "A Tale of Three Schools: Insights on Autocorrelations of Short-Horizon Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 539-573.
    17. Hsieh, David A, 1991. "Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1839-1877, December.
    18. Chan, Kalok, 1993. "Imperfect Information and Cross-Autocorrelation among Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1211-1230, September.
    19. Sias, Richard W. & Starks, Laura T., 1997. "Return autocorrelation and institutional investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 103-131, October.
    20. Salinger, M.A., 1989. "Stock Market Margin Requirements And Volatility: Implications For Regulation Of Stock Index Futures," Papers t4, Columbia - Center for Futures Markets.
    21. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-547, August.
    22. Atchison, Michael D & Butler, Kirt C & Simonds, Richard R, 1987. "Nonsynchronous Security Trading and Market Index Autocorrelation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 111-118, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alex Garivaltis, 2019. "The Laws of Motion of the Broker Call Rate in the United States," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-23, October.
    2. Fotini Economou & Konstantinos Gavriilidis & Bartosz Gebka & Vasileios Kallinterakis, 2022. "Feedback trading: a review of theory and empirical evidence," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(4), pages 429-476, February.
    3. Chen, Carl R. & Su, Yuli & Huang, Ying, 2008. "Hourly index return autocorrelation and conditional volatility in an EAR-GJR-GARCH model with generalized error distribution," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 789-798, September.
    4. Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Liu, Fei & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Shao, Jia, 2020. "Pricing inefficiencies and feedback trading: Evidence from country ETFs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    5. Wu, Wei-Hwa, 2021. "Extendible stock loan," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    6. Schuppli, Michael & Bohl, Martin T., 2010. "Do foreign institutional investors destabilize China's A-share markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 36-50, February.
    7. Andrikopoulos, Panagiotis & Cui, Yueting & Gad, Samar & Kallinterakis, Vasileios, 2020. "Feedback trading and the ramadan effect in frontier markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    8. Michael Schuppli & Martin T. Bohl, 2009. "Do Foreign Institutional Investors Destabilize China’s A-Share Markets?," CQE Working Papers 0909, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    9. Gebka, Bartosz & Henke, Harald & Bohl, Martin T., 2006. "Institutional trading and stock return autocorrelation: Empirical evidence on Polish pension fund investors' behavior," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 233-244, March.
    10. Kusen, Alex & Rudolf, Markus, 2019. "Feedback trading: Strategies during day and night with global interconnectedness," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 438-463.
    11. Rakesh Kumar & Raj S. Dhankar, 2011. "Non Linearity and Heteroskedasticity Effect on Stock Returns Volatility," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 12(2), pages 319-329, June.
    12. Charteris, Ailie & Chau, Frankie & Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Kallinterakis, Vasileios, 2014. "Premiums, discounts and feedback trading: Evidence from emerging markets' ETFs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 80-89.
    13. Charteris, Ailie & Kallinterakis, Vasileios, 2021. "Feedback trading in retail-dominated assets: Evidence from the gold bullion coin market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    14. Paramita Mukherjee & Rajashri Chatterjee, 2024. "Feedback Trading and Its Implications for Return Autocorrelations in India During COVID," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 23(2), pages 246-270, June.
    15. Salm, Christian A. & Schuppli, Michael, 2010. "Positive feedback trading in stock index futures: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 313-322, December.
    16. B. D. Craven & Sardar M. N. Islam, 2015. "Stock Price Modeling: Separation of Trend and Fluctuations, and Implications," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(04), pages 1-12, December.
    17. Henryk Gurgul & Paweł Majdosz, 2006. "The impact of institutional investors on risk and stock return autocorrelations in the context of the Polish pension reform," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 16(2), pages 5-30.
    18. Rakesh Kumar & Raj S. Dhankar, 2010. "Empirical Analysis of Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Time Series of Stock Returns and Asymmetric Effect on Volatility," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 11(1), pages 21-33, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Koutmos, Gregory, 1997. "Feedback trading and the autocorrelation pattern of stock returns: further empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 625-636, August.
    2. Bohl, Martin T. & Klein, Arne C. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2013. "Are short sellers positive feedback traders? Evidence from the global financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 337-346.
    3. Shah Saeed Hassan Chowdhury & M. Arifur Rahman & M. Shibley Sadique, 2015. "Behaviour of Stock Return Autocorrelation in the GCC Stock Markets," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 16(5), pages 737-746, October.
    4. Martin Bohl & Pierre Siklos, 2008. "Empirical evidence on feedback trading in mature and emerging stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(17), pages 1379-1389.
    5. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2004. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Models: A Review," MPRA Paper 80487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven, 2014. "The impact of the CSI 300 stock index futures: Positive feedback trading and autocorrelation of stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 319-337.
    7. Saint Kuttu & Godfred A. Bokpin, 2017. "Feedback Trading and Autocorrelation Patterns in Sub-Saharan African Equity Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(1), pages 213-225, January.
    8. Shah Saeed Hassan Chowdhury & M. Arifur Rahman & M. Shibley Sadique, 2017. "Stock return autocorrelation, day of the week and volatility," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 16(2), pages 218-238, May.
    9. Koutmos, Gregory, 1998. "Asymmetries in the Conditional Mean and the Conditional Variance: Evidence From Nine Stock Markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 277-290, May.
    10. Schuppli, Michael & Bohl, Martin T., 2010. "Do foreign institutional investors destabilize China's A-share markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 36-50, February.
    11. Michael Schuppli & Martin T. Bohl, 2009. "Do Foreign Institutional Investors Destabilize China’s A-Share Markets?," CQE Working Papers 0909, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    12. McKenzie, Michael D. & Faff, Robert W., 2005. "Modeling conditional return autocorrelation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 23-42.
    13. Safvenblad, Patrik, 2000. "Trading volume and autocorrelation: Empirical evidence from the Stockholm Stock Exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1275-1287, August.
    14. Gregory Koutmos, 1999. "Asymmetric index stock returns: evidence from the G-7," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(12), pages 817-820.
    15. Antoniou, Antonios & Koutmos, Gregory & Pericli, Andreas, 2005. "Index futures and positive feedback trading: evidence from major stock exchanges," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 219-238, March.
    16. Venetis, Ioannis A. & Peel, David, 2005. "Non-linearity in stock index returns: the volatility and serial correlation relationship," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-19, January.
    17. Sias, Richard W. & Starks, Laura T., 1997. "Return autocorrelation and institutional investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 103-131, October.
    18. Tomoe Moore, 2007. "Has entry to the European Union altered the dynamic links of stock returns for the emerging markets?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(17), pages 1431-1446.
    19. Dong-Hyun Ahn & Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2002. "Partial Adjustment or Stale Prices? Implications from Stock Index and Futures Return Autocorrelations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 655-689, March.
    20. Simone Bianco & Roberto Ren'o, 2006. "Unexpected volatility and intraday serial correlation," Papers physics/0610023, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:12:y:2002:i:6:p:395-403. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.