IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/emffin/v23y2024i2p246-270.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Feedback Trading and Its Implications for Return Autocorrelations in India During COVID

Author

Listed:
  • Paramita Mukherjee
  • Rajashri Chatterjee

Abstract

In emerging capital markets, feedback trading is a widely pursued strategy by investors. Such behavior may potentially lead to volatility and cause negative autocorrelation in market returns, especially during high volatility. In India, such a linkage has not been explored so far, though institutional investors have pursued feedback trading for the last two decades. Also, COVID-19 has led to higher volatility in the markets and might have altered investors’ behavior. This article focuses on finding whether feedback trading is still pursued by institutional investors in Indian equity markets post-COVID and also whether the presence of feedback traders exerts any influence on autocorrelations in market returns. Asymmetric GARCH models are employed to explore the linkage. Findings suggest that while foreign institutional investors continue to pursue positive feedback trading, as in the pre-pandemic period, domestic investors pursue negative feedback trading. However, in the post-pandemic period, as other types of trading became weak or perished, positive feedback traders have started dominating, leading to negative autocorrelation in market returns during heightened volatility. Evidence of negative autocorrelation was not present in the pre-pandemic period. Further, negative news leads to more volatility in returns. JEL Codes: F21, F32, G11

Suggested Citation

  • Paramita Mukherjee & Rajashri Chatterjee, 2024. "Feedback Trading and Its Implications for Return Autocorrelations in India During COVID," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 23(2), pages 246-270, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:emffin:v:23:y:2024:i:2:p:246-270
    DOI: 10.1177/09726527231215541
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/09726527231215541
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/09726527231215541?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antoniou, Antonios & Koutmos, Gregory & Pericli, Andreas, 2005. "Index futures and positive feedback trading: evidence from major stock exchanges," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 219-238, March.
    2. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-395, June.
    3. Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil B, 1992. "Feedback Traders and Stock Return Autocorrelations: Evidence from a Century of Daily Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(411), pages 415-425, March.
    4. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992. "The impact of institutional trading on stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-43, August.
    5. Kim, Woochan & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2002. "Foreign portfolio investors before and during a crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 77-96, January.
    6. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
    7. Meng-Fen Hsieh & Tzu-Yi Yang & Yu-Tai Yang & Jen-Sin Lee, 2011. "Evidence of herding and positive feedback trading for mutual funds in emerging Asian countries," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 423-435.
    8. Paramita Mukherjee & Sweta Tiwari, 2022. "Trading Behaviour of Foreign Institutional Investors: Evidence from Indian Stock Markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(4), pages 605-629, December.
    9. Cutler, David M & Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "Speculative Dynamics and the Role of Feedback Traders," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 63-68, May.
    10. Fotini Economou & Konstantinos Gavriilidis & Bartosz Gebka & Vasileios Kallinterakis, 2022. "Feedback trading: a review of theory and empirical evidence," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(4), pages 429-476, February.
    11. Augusto Ferreira da Costa Neto & Marcelo Cabus Klotzle & Antonio Carlos Figueiredo Pinto, 2019. "Investor behavior in ETF markets: a comparative study between the US and emerging markets," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(5), pages 944-966, August.
    12. Koutmos, Gregory, 1997. "Feedback trading and the autocorrelation pattern of stock returns: further empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 625-636, August.
    13. Bohl, Martin T. & Klein, Arne C. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2013. "Are short sellers positive feedback traders? Evidence from the global financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 337-346.
    14. Kapil Choudhary & Parminder Singh & Amit Soni, 2022. "Relationship Between FIIs’ Herding and Returns in the Indian Equity Market: Further Empirical Evidence," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 23(1), pages 137-155, February.
    15. Kotaro Miwa & Kazuhiro Ueda, 2011. "A Dynamic Volume–Return Relation and Investors' Positive Feedback Trading," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 325-351, September.
    16. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    17. Gregory Koutmos & Reza Saidi, 2001. "Positive feedback trading in emerging capital markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 291-297.
    18. Yin Hong, 2011. "Positive feedback trading, institutional investors and securities price fluctuation," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 1(2), pages 120-132, January.
    19. Toshiaki Watanabe, 2002. "Margin requirements, positive feedback trading, and stock return autocorrelations: the case of Japan," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6), pages 395-403.
    20. Julijana Angelovska, 2013. "Detecting Positive Feedback Trading when Autocorrelation is Positive," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 16(1), pages 93-101, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fotini Economou & Konstantinos Gavriilidis & Bartosz Gebka & Vasileios Kallinterakis, 2022. "Feedback trading: a review of theory and empirical evidence," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(4), pages 429-476, February.
    2. Charteris, Ailie & Kallinterakis, Vasileios, 2021. "Feedback trading in retail-dominated assets: Evidence from the gold bullion coin market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Andrikopoulos, Panagiotis & Cui, Yueting & Gad, Samar & Kallinterakis, Vasileios, 2020. "Feedback trading and the ramadan effect in frontier markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Liu, Fei & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Shao, Jia, 2020. "Pricing inefficiencies and feedback trading: Evidence from country ETFs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    5. Kusen, Alex & Rudolf, Markus, 2019. "Feedback trading: Strategies during day and night with global interconnectedness," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 438-463.
    6. Schuppli, Michael & Bohl, Martin T., 2010. "Do foreign institutional investors destabilize China's A-share markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 36-50, February.
    7. Michael Schuppli & Martin T. Bohl, 2009. "Do Foreign Institutional Investors Destabilize China’s A-Share Markets?," CQE Working Papers 0909, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    8. Salm, Christian A. & Schuppli, Michael, 2010. "Positive feedback trading in stock index futures: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 313-322, December.
    9. Antonios Antoniou & Gregory Koutmos & Gioia Pescetto, 2011. "Testing for Long Memory in the Feedback Mechanism in the Futures Markets," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(2), pages 78-90, September.
    10. Chen, Jing & Dong, Yizhe & Hou, Wenxuan & McMillan, David G., 2018. "Does feedback trading drive returns of cross-listed shares?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 179-199.
    11. Kutan, Ali M. & Shi, Yukun & Wei, Mingzhe & Zhao, Yang, 2018. "Does the introduction of index futures stabilize stock markets? Further evidence from emerging markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 183-197.
    12. Chau, Frankie & Kuo, Jing-Ming & Shi, Yukun, 2015. "Arbitrage opportunities and feedback trading in emissions and energy markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 130-147.
    13. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2010. "Oil price dynamics and speculation: A multivariate financial approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 363-372, March.
    14. Martin Bohl & Pierre Siklos, 2008. "Empirical evidence on feedback trading in mature and emerging stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(17), pages 1379-1389.
    15. Charteris, Ailie & Musadziruma, Arnold, 2017. "Feedback trading in stock index futures: Evidence from South Africa," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1289-1297.
    16. Julijana Angelovska, 2013. "Detecting Positive Feedback Trading when Autocorrelation is Positive," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 16(1), pages 93-101, May.
    17. Imran Riaz MALIK* & Attaullah SHAH*, 2014. "Market Varying Conditional Risk-Return Relationship," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 24(2), pages 121-142.
    18. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven, 2014. "The impact of the CSI 300 stock index futures: Positive feedback trading and autocorrelation of stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 319-337.
    19. Siklos, Pierre L. & Bohl, Martin T., 2005. "Trading Behavior During Stock Market Downturns: The Dow, 1915 - 2004," Working Paper Series 2005,7, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
    20. Chau, Frankie & Deesomsak, Rataporn & Lau, Marco C.K., 2011. "Investor sentiment and feedback trading: Evidence from the exchange-traded fund markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 292-305.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Autocorrelation; institutional investors; trading behavior; post-COVID; volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:emffin:v:23:y:2024:i:2:p:246-270. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ifmr.ac.in .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.