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Is there a long run relationship between stock returns and monetary variables: evidence from an emerging market

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  • Gulnur Muradog Lu
  • Kivilcim Metin
  • Reha Argac

Abstract

Literature that provides empirical evidence about the long-term relationship between stock returns and monetary variables in emerging markets is limited. In those markets, unlike in mature ones, market participants and the availability of information as well as its quality, change rapidly through time. The purpose of this study is to examine the long-term relationship between stock returns and monetary variables in an emerging market through time by using the cointegration technique. The database is set up at daily frequency of variables that are customarily used by the financial media as determinants of stock investments and the cointegration technique enables us to consider changes in long-run steady-state properties of the equilibrium relationship between the non-stationary stock prices and monetary variables. The findings of this study indicate that, overall results should not be used in formulating investment strategies because they can be misleading in the sense that the variables that explain stock prices might change through time. In the case of ISE, as the market became more mature, the influence of monetary expansion and interest rates disappeared and foreign currency prices regained their expected significance.

Suggested Citation

  • Gulnur Muradog Lu & Kivilcim Metin & Reha Argac, 2001. "Is there a long run relationship between stock returns and monetary variables: evidence from an emerging market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 641-649.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:11:y:2001:i:6:p:641-649
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100110094411
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    1. Baldi, Lucia & Peri, Massimo & Vandone, Daniela, 2013. "Clean Energy Industries and rare Earth Materials: Economic and Financial Issues," 2013 International European Forum, February 18-22, 2013, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 164750, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    2. Godfrey Marozva & Margaret Rutendo Magwedere, 2017. "Macroeconomic Variables, Leverage, Stock Returns and Stock Return Volatility," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 13(4), pages 264-288, AUGUST.
    3. Mala Raghavan & Mardi Dungey, 2015. "Should ASEAN-5 monetary policy-makers act pre-emptively against stock market bubbles?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(11), pages 1086-1105, March.
    4. Peri, Massimo & Vandone, Daniela & Baldi, Lucia, 2014. "Worldwide Evidences in the Relationships between Agriculture, Energy and Water Sectors," 2014 International European Forum, February 17-21, 2014, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 199346, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    5. Henryk Gurgul & Milena Suliga & Tomasz Wojtowicz, 2012. "Responses of the Warsaw Stock Exchange to the U.S. macroeconomic data announcements," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 12, pages 41-59.
    6. Aminullah Assagaf & Etty Murwaningsari & Juniati Gunawan & Sekar Mayangsari, 2021. "The Effect of Macro Economic Variables on Stock Return of Companies That Listed in Stock Exchange: Empirical Evidence from Indonesia," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 14(8), pages 108-108, July.
    7. Baldi, Lucia & Peri, Massimo & Vandone, Daniela, 2014. "Clean energy industries and rare earth materials: Economic and financial issues," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 53-61.
    8. Massimo PERI & Daniela VANDONE & Lucia BALDI, 2014. "Water, Food, Energy: Searching for the Economic Nexus," Departmental Working Papers 2014-03, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    9. Animesh Bhattacharjee & Joy Das, 2022. "Assessing the long-run and short-run effect of monetary variables on stock market in the presence of structural breaks: evidence from liberalised India," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 14(2), pages 121-131, December.
    10. Omar, Abdullah & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Does inflation impact shariah (islamic) equity index and conventional equity index differently?the case of Malaysia," MPRA Paper 102576, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. N. Chitra Devi & S. Chandramohan, 2016. "Asymmetric relationship between stock market returns and macroeconomic variables," International Journal of Business Forecasting and Marketing Intelligence, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(2), pages 79-94.
    12. Abdullah, Ahmad Monir & Saiti, Buerhan & Masih, Abul Mansur M., 2014. "Causality between Stock Market Index and Macroeconomic Variables: A Case Study for Malaysia," MPRA Paper 56987, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Özge SEZGIN ALP & Fazil GÖKGÖZ & Güray KÜÇÜKKOCAOGLU, 2016. "Estimating Turkish Stock Market Returns With Apt Model: Cointegration And Vector Error Correction," Economic Review: Journal of Economics and Business, University of Tuzla, Faculty of Economics, vol. 14(1), pages 7-19, May.
    14. Dinh Tran Ngoc Huy & Bui Thi Thu Loan & Pham Tuan Anh, 2020. "Impact of selected factors on stock price: a case study of Vietcombank in Vietnam," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 7(4), pages 2715-2730, June.
    15. Peter Arhenful & Augustine Kwadwo Yeboah & Kofi Sarfo Adjei, 2021. "Effect of Interest Rate on Stock Prices in Ghana," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 12(1), pages 1-7.
    16. Radman Peša, Anita & Brajković, Ana, 2015. "Testing The ‘Black Swan Effect’ on Croatian Stock Market Between 2000 and 2013," MPRA Paper 69223, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    17. Lucia BALDI & Massimo PERI & Daniela VANDONE, 2013. "Clean Energy Industries and Rare Earth Materials: Economic and Financial Issues," Departmental Working Papers 2013-07, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    18. Anita Radman Peša & Mejra Festić, 2012. "Testing the "EU Announcement Effect" on Stock Market Indices and Macroeconomic Variables in Croatia Between 2000 and 2010," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2012(4), pages 450-469.
    19. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:2013:y:2013:i:4:id:434:p:450-469 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Balaban, Ercan & Ozgen, Tolga, 2016. "Trading session effects on stock returns and their conditional volatility: Firm-level evidence from a European Union accession country," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 446(C), pages 264-271.
    21. Nahavandian, Mohsen & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Granger-causal relationship between macroeconomic factors and the Malaysian islamic index," MPRA Paper 100805, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Prempeh, Kwadwo Boateng, 2016. "Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Price Volatility in Ghana," MPRA Paper 70545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Sepehrdoust, Hamid & Ahmadvand, Shokoufeh & Mirzaei, Nesa, 2022. "Impact of information, communication technology and housing industry on financial market development," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

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