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TIPS and inflation expectations

Author

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  • Florian Bardong
  • Thorsten Lehnert

Abstract

Previous research suggests that the market for index-linked bonds is not entirely efficient and that these inefficiencies can be exploited by including inflation forecasts in trades on break-even inflation. Inspired by those results, we test the informational content of inflation expectations using survey data generated by the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We develop trading strategies speculating on the movement of break-even inflation. The results indicate that the market for US inflation-indexed government bonds offers the possibility to obtain excess returns. These results are fairly consistent regardless of market frictions introduced in the return calculation.

Suggested Citation

  • Florian Bardong & Thorsten Lehnert, 2008. "TIPS and inflation expectations," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 513-517.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:15:y:2008:i:7:p:513-517
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850600706933
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and the News," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(2), pages 1-40, March.
    2. Daniel L. Tortorice & Arben Kita, 2018. "Can Risk Models Extract Inflation Expectations from Financial Market Data? Evidence from the Inflation Protected Securities of Six Countries," Working Papers 1801, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    3. Thorsten Lehnert & Aleksandar Andonov & Florian Bardong, 2009. "TIPS, Inflation Expectations and the Financial Crisis," LSF Research Working Paper Series 09-09, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.

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