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Unit root tests and persistence of unemployment: Spain vs. the United States

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  • Diego Romero-Avila
  • Carlos Usabiaga

Abstract

In this article, we investigate the existence of infrequent shocks and the degree of persistence of unemployment in the US and Spain over the period 1976-2004. We first apply the minimum Lagrange Multiplier unit root test with up to two endogenous changes in level. The evidence gives support to the hysteresis hypothesis for Spain and to regime-wise stationarity for the US. The computation of median unbiased estimates of half-lives directly from the impulse-response function indicates a much higher degree of persistence of unemployment in Spain than in the US. Our results thus give an indication that aggregate demand policies may have different effects in these two countries.

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  • Diego Romero-Avila & Carlos Usabiaga, 2007. "Unit root tests and persistence of unemployment: Spain vs. the United States," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 457-461.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:14:y:2007:i:6:p:457-461
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850500474160
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    2. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
    3. Ömer AKKUŞ & Seher Gülşah TOPUZ, 2019. "Validity of Unemployment Hysteresis: The Most Fragile Five Developing Countries," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 27(39).
    4. Yiannis Karavias & Elias Tzavalis, 2014. "Testing for unit roots in panels with structural changes, spatial and temporal dependence when the time dimension is finite," Discussion Papers 14/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    5. Ghoshray, Atanu & Stamatogiannis, Michalis P., 2015. "Centurial evidence of breaks in the persistence of unemployment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 74-76.
    6. Javier Andrés Domingo & José Emilio Boscá & Rafael Domenech Vilariño & Javier Ferri, 2009. "Job Creation in Spain: Productivity Growth, Labour Market Reforms or both?," Working Papers 0903, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia.
    7. De-Chih Liu, 2023. "Unemployment persistence with an evolutionary perspective: job creation or destruction (or both)?," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 83-109, April.
    8. Peter S. Sephton, 2012. "Persistence in U.S. State Unemployment Rates: Errata and Extensions," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(3), pages 1-9, January.
    9. Rodrigo Mulero & Alfredo García-Hiernaux, 2021. "Forecasting Spanish unemployment with Google Trends and dimension reduction techniques," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 329-349, September.
    10. Tolga Omay & Muhammad Shahbaz & Chris Stewart, 2021. "Is there really hysteresis in the OECD unemployment rates? New evidence using a Fourier panel unit root test," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 875-901, November.
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    12. Burak Güriş & Burcu Yavuz Tiftikçigil & Muhammed Tıraşoğlu, 2017. "Testing for unemployment hysteresis in Turkey: evidence from nonlinear unit root tests," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 35-46, January.

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