IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apeclt/v12y2005i2p67-71.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

International growth and volatility in historical perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Siegler

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between the volatility and growth of real GDP using a newly constructed panel data set from twelve countries over the 1870 to 1929 period. In addition, many other variables are examined that are related to economic growth. The goal has been to uncover robust empirical regularities on this issue for the period prior to the Great Depression - a period which has been relatively neglected in previous empirical work. The main finding is that there is a robust negative partial correlation between volatility and growth, after controlling for other factors. This result is consistent with recent empirical evidence on the post-World War II period.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Siegler, 2005. "International growth and volatility in historical perspective," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 67-71.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:12:y:2005:i:2:p:67-71
    DOI: 10.1080/1350485042000314361
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&doi=10.1080/1350485042000314361&magic=repec&7C&7C8674ECAB8BB840C6AD35DC6213A474B5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/1350485042000314361?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2003. "Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 49-123, January.
    2. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2003. "The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1419-1447.
    3. Peter L. Rousseau & Richard Sylla, 2003. "Financial Systems, Economic Growth, and Globalization," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 373-416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Victor Zarnowitz & Geoffrey H. Moore, 1986. "Major Changes in Cyclical Behavior," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 519-582, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    6. Dawson, John W. & Stephenson, E. Frank, 1997. "The link between volatility and growth: Evidence from the States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 365-369, September.
    7. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
    8. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1997. "Endogenous Growth Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262011662, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    2. Paul Beaumont & Stefan Norrbin & F. Pinar Yigit, 2007. "Time series evidence on the linkage between the volatility and growth of output," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 45-48.
    3. Aykut Ekinci, 2022. "Relationship Between Output Volatility and Output in OECD Countries Revisited," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2022(6), pages 509-537.
    4. Omar M. Al Nasser, 2007. "The Determinants of the U.S. Foreign Direct Investment: Does the Region Matter?," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 37-51.
    5. Michał Brzozowski, 2011. "The interplay between labor market rigidity and volatility-growth nexus," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 405-418.
    6. Jones, Larry E. & Manuelli, Rodolfo E., 2005. "Neoclassical Models of Endogenous Growth: The Effects of Fiscal Policy, Innovation and Fluctuations," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 13-65, Elsevier.
    7. Ghulam MOHEY-UD-DIN* & Muhammad Wasif SIDDIQI**, 2017. "GDP FLUCTUATIONS AND LONG-RUN ECONOMIC GROWTH: A Study of Selected South Asian Countries," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 27(1), pages 41-66.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar S. & Terrones, Marco E., 2006. "How do trade and financial integration affect the relationship between growth and volatility?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 176-202, June.
    2. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2013. "Policy Volatility, Institutions, and Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 362-376, May.
    3. John W. Dawson, 2015. "The Empirical Volatility-Growth Relationship: Is Economic Freedom the Missing Link?," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 30(Summer 20), pages 61-82.
    4. Pinar Deniz & Thanasis Stengos & M. Ege Yazgan, 2021. "Revisiting the link between output growth and volatility: panel GARCH analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 743-771, August.
    5. Jemberu Lulie Mekonnen & Ali Suut Dogruel, 2018. "Growth and Volatility Nexus in Sub‐Saharan Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 30(2), pages 175-186, June.
    6. repec:apl:wpaper:14-08 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Alberto Chong & Mark Gradstein, 2009. "Volatility and firm growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 1-25, March.
    8. Alberto Chong & Mark Gradstein, 2006. "Policy Volatility and Growth," Research Department Publications 4481, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    9. Keith Blackburn & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2008. "Human capital accumulation and output growth in a stochastic environment," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 36(3), pages 435-452, September.
    10. Antonio Fatas & Ilian Mihov, 2009. "Macroeconomic Policy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 28025.
    11. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    12. Lee, Jim, 2010. "The link between output growth and volatility: Evidence from a GARCH model with panel data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 143-145, February.
    13. Solomos, Dionysios & Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Koumparoulis, Dimitrios, 2012. "Financial Sector and Business Cycles Determinants in the EMU context: An Empirical Approach (1996-2011)," MPRA Paper 43858, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2005. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty And Macroeconomic Performance: Are They Related?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(s1), pages 58-76, September.
    15. Ragchaasuren, Galindev, 2005. "The Relationship between Growth and Volatility under Alternative Shocks," Economics Discussion Papers 9980, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    16. repec:hal:cepnwp:hal-00951544 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Markus Brueckner & Francisco Carneiro, 2017. "Terms of trade volatility, government spending cyclicality, and economic growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 975-989, November.
    18. Ratbek Dzhumashev, 2007. "Corruption, Uncertainty And Growth," Monash Economics Working Papers 15-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    19. Jones, Larry E. & Manuelli, Rodolfo E., 2005. "Neoclassical Models of Endogenous Growth: The Effects of Fiscal Policy, Innovation and Fluctuations," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 13-65, Elsevier.
    20. Dimitrios Bakas & Georgios Chortareas & Georgios Magkonis, 2019. "Volatility and growth: a not so straightforward relationship," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 874-907.
    21. Jetter, Michael, 2014. "Volatility and growth: Governments are key," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 71-88.
    22. K Blackburn & A Pelloni, 2001. "On the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility in Learning-by-Doing Economies," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 01, Economics, The University of Manchester.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:12:y:2005:i:2:p:67-71. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEL20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.