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Can Japan or China replace the US as the monetary anchor for Hong Kong and Macau?

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  • Chee-Heong Quah

Abstract

This contribution attempts to examine the relative importance of the US, Japan and China to Hong Kong and Macau, two effective dollar-based currency boards today, by evaluating the economic potentiality of Japan or China as an alternative monetary anchor country against the US. The assessment is made according to the criteria prescribed by the optimum currency areas (OCA) theory. In addition to that, a subsidiary analysis is done to evaluate in general the suitability of their fixed exchange rate regimes, regardless of the anchor country. Amidst the existing dollar linked arrangement and the rising dominance of China, significant evidence suggests that Japan, despite its lacklustre domestic conditions, might be at least as good a monetary anchor as the US for Hong Kong. In the meantime, China seems to be a more promising monetary anchor alternative for Macau. The features of Hong Kong and Macau also appear to broadly and endogenously support their fixed exchange rates, but not all the features of Macau, a HK-dollar-based currency board, are consistently symmetrical with those of Hong Kong.

Suggested Citation

  • Chee-Heong Quah, 2012. "Can Japan or China replace the US as the monetary anchor for Hong Kong and Macau?," Asia Pacific Business Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 335-354, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apbizr:v:18:y:2012:i:3:p:335-354
    DOI: 10.1080/13602381.2011.608822
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ronald McKinnon, 2010. "Rehabilitating the unloved dollar standard," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 24(2), pages 1-18, November.
    2. Guillermo Calvo & Mervyn King (ed.), 1998. "The Debt Burden and its Consequences for Monetary Policy," International Economic Association Series, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-26077-5.
    3. Stefan Gerlach & Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2006. "Monetary policy regimes and macroeconomic outcomes: Hong Kong and Singapore," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in Asia: approaches and implementation, volume 31, pages 40-64, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Toan Nguyen, 2007. "East Asian Currency Area: A Fuzzy Clustering Analysis of Homogeneity," Working Papers 10, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam.
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    Cited by:

    1. Berdiev, Aziz N. & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2015. "Business cycle synchronization in Asia-Pacific: New evidence from wavelet analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 20-33.
    2. Chee-Heong Quah, 2017. "Exchange Rate Fixation between US, China, Japan and Eurozone," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 11(2), pages 99-120, May.
    3. Chee-Heong Quah & Patrick M. Crowley, 2012. "China and the Dollar: An Optimum Currency Area View," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2012(4), pages 391-411.
    4. Chee-Heong Quah, 2016. "Germany versus the United States: Monetary Dominance in the Eurozone," Economies, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-16, April.

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