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Rezessionen in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland von 1966 bis 2013
[German Recessions 1966 to 20013]

Author

Listed:
  • Ullrich Heilemann

    (Universität Leipzig)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Der 13. Konjunkturzyklus nähert sich in Deutschland seinem Ende und die Sorgen sind groß, dass eine Rezession bevorsteht. Eine zunehmende Zahl von Indikatoren deuten in diese Richtung und die Fehlermargen der aktuellen Prognosen schließen dies ohnehin nicht mehr aus. Dass bislang Prognostiker kaum eine Rezession sehen, steht dem nicht entgegen: Ihre Neigung, Rezessionen zu prognostizieren, ist notorisch gering. Vor diesem Hintergrund erscheint es als zweckmäßig, einen — kurzen — Blick auf die bisherigen Rezessionen zu werfen. Der folgende Überblick fokussiert sich auf die Dauer von Rezessionen, analysiert aber auch, was sehr viel weniger Aufmerksamkeit findet: ihre Breite, Tiefe und Schwere.

Suggested Citation

  • Ullrich Heilemann, 2019. "Rezessionen in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland von 1966 bis 2013 [German Recessions 1966 to 20013]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 99(8), pages 546-552, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:99:y:2019:i:8:d:10.1007_s10273-019-2489-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10273-019-2489-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Christoph Knill & Yves Steinebach, 2022. "What has happened and what has not happened due to the coronavirus disease pandemic: a systemic perspective on policy change [Punctuated equilibrium in comparative perspective]," Policy and Society, Darryl S. Jarvis and M. Ramesh, vol. 41(1), pages 25-39.
    2. Katarzyna Haverkamp & Petrik Runst & Till Proeger, 2021. "Das Handwerk zwischen Corona-Krise und Rückvermeisterung [The Effects of COVID-19 Induced Lockdown Measures on Market Entry and Exits in the Skilled Crafts Sector]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(3), pages 194-199, March.
    3. Kocziszky, György & Szendi, Dóra, 2023. "Ex-Ante Analysis Of Macro-Regional Development In The Visegrad Countries, With Special Emphasis On Some Turbulent Periods," Economic and Regional Studies (Studia Ekonomiczne i Regionalne), John Paul II University of Applied Sciences in Biala Podlaska, vol. 16(2), June.
    4. Rademacher, Philip, 2024. "Forecasting recessions in Germany with machine learning," DICE Discussion Papers 416, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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