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Japans Lehren für das Schweizer Wechselkursdilemma

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  • Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

In January 2015, the Swiss National Bank announced that the hard peg of the Swiss franc against the euro will be released and that the Swiss currency should float freely. This announcement brought the Swiss franc under strong appreciation pressure. The Swiss National Bank seems to have returned within a short time to a tight peg without officially announced parity. This paper shows that currencies of countries with persistent current account surpluses and high foreign currency denominated debt, such as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, are under a persistent appreciation pressure. Appreciation expectations, which are triggered by official announcements of appreciations, lead into runs in the domestic currency, which make appreciation expectations self fulfilling. Multiple equilibria emerge: the appreciation of the domestic currency and the appreciation induced crisis depend on the signals of the central bank concerning its tolerance of an appreciation of the domestic currency. The phenomenon is enhanced in an environment of very expansionary monetary policies in the centres of the world monetary system. The economic policy implication is a tight peg of the Swiss franc to the euro, because a better solution is not available. Copyright ZBW and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Gunther Schnabl, 2015. "Japans Lehren für das Schweizer Wechselkursdilemma," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 95(3), pages 192-199, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:95:y:2015:i:3:p:192-199
    DOI: 10.1007/s10273-015-1805-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Grossmann, Volker & Steger, Thomas M. & Trimborn, Timo, 2013. "The macroeconomics of TANSTAAFL," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 76-85.
    2. Schäfer, Andreas & Schneider, Maik T., 2015. "Endogenous Enforcement Of Intellectual Property, North–South Trade, And Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(5), pages 1074-1115, July.
    3. McKinnon, Ronald & Schnabl, Gunther, 2008. "China's exchange rate impasse and the weak U.S. dollar," Working Papers 73, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    F15; F31; F33;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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