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The effects of European integration and the business cycle on migration flows: a gravity analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Alfonso Arpaia

    (European Commission)

  • Aron Kiss

    (European Commission)

  • Balazs Palvolgyi

    (European Commission)

  • Alessandro Turrini

    (European Commission)

Abstract

This paper explores how European integration, economic fluctuations, and the interactions of these factors affect bilateral migration flows. It focuses on how migration flows developed in the wake of the establishment of the European Monetary Union, and whether migration flows became stronger, and more responsive to economic fluctuations, in the euro area. It estimates a gravity equation of bilateral gross migration flows on a global sample and on a sample restricted to the first 12 members of the euro area. It is found that unemployment is a strong and robust determinant of bilateral migration flows both globally and in the euro area. EU accession and the lifting of labour market restrictions on new member states had a large effect on gross migration flows. While mutual euro area membership is not associated with an overall rise in migration, it is associated with increased flows from countries where unemployment is high to those where it is lower. Migration flows among the euro-area 12 have been on an increasing trend since the late 1990s; after falls in 2009 they picked up again in 2010 and 2011. The evidence overall suggests that labour mobility plays an increasing role in the adjustment to asymmetric shocks in the EU and the euro area.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfonso Arpaia & Aron Kiss & Balazs Palvolgyi & Alessandro Turrini, 2018. "The effects of European integration and the business cycle on migration flows: a gravity analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(4), pages 815-834, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:154:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s10290-018-0316-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10290-018-0316-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Tigran Poghosyan, 2018. "Regional Labor Mobility in Finland," IMF Working Papers 2018/252, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Pizzuto, Pietro, 2022. "Moving closer? Comparing regional adjustments to shocks in EMU and the United States," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    3. Gamito Carlos Coca & Baltos Georgios, 2019. "Optimal Spatial Allocation of Labour Force and Employment Protection Legislation (EPL)," Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, Sciendo, vol. 45(45), pages 45-58, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migration; Geographic mobility; Labour mobility; Gravity; European Union; EMU;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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