Flood Hazard Assessment Using Hydrodynamic Modeling Under Severity-Frequency Based Changing Flood Regime

Flood hazard assessment is essential for climate-change management planning. River flow frequency and size affect basin flood regime. This study evaluates the flood hazard of delta region of a large Indian river basin, the Mahanadi River basin, for possible future flood scenarios. Based on flood severity and frequency, basin flood regime change is examined. Four different flood scenarios are considered such as reference scenario (1955–2001), present scenario (1981–2011) and two possible future scenarios, by modifying the peak flood series with percentage change approach. Flood hazard was assessed based on the results of hydrodynamic modelling. Based on flood estimations at head of delta region, flood intensity is increasing in delta region of Mahanadi basin. Floods of higher return period (61 years) in the reference scenario happens to be a lower return period flood (11 years) in possible future scenario. In recent years, high floods have maximum water level profiles equal to or higher than 5- and 10-year return period floods of hypothetical future flood scenarios. Flood inundation evaluation under multiple land-uses shows that economically significant land-uses including farmland, built-up land, and aquaculture are more vulnerable to future floods. In the Mahanadi delta, 'high' and 'very high' flood depth coverage increases and 'low' depth diminishes. Inundation area for 'very high' flood depth is increasing, indicating agricultural vulnerability in the delta region.