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Convolutional Neural Network -Support Vector Machine Model-Gaussian Process Regression: A New Machine Model for Predicting Monthly and Daily Rainfall

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad Ehteram

    (Semnan University)

  • Ali Najah Ahmed

    (Universiti Tenaga Nasional (UNITEN))

  • Zohreh Sheikh Khozani

    (Bauhaus Universität Weimar)

  • Ahmed El-Shafie

    (University of Malaya (UM))

Abstract

Rainfall prediction is an important issue in water resource management. Predicting rainfall helps researchers to monitor droughts, surface water and floods. The current study introduces a new deep learning model named convolutional neural network (CONN)- support vector machine (SVM)- Gaussian regression process (GPR) to predict daily and monthly rainfall data in Terengganu River Basin, Malaysia. The CONN-SVM-GRP model can extract the most important features automatically. The main advantage of the new model is to reflect the uncertainty values in the modelling process. The lagged rainfall values were used as the input variables to the models. The proposed CONN-SVM-GRP model successfully decreased the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of other models by 5.9%-23% at the daily scale and 20%-61% at the monthly scale. The CONN-SVM-GRP model also provided the lowest uncertainty among other models, making it a reliable tool for predicting data points and intervals. Hence, it can be concluded that CONN-SVM-GRP model contributes to the sustainable management of water resources, even when satellite data is unavailable, by using lagged values to predict rainfall. Additionally, the model extracts important features without using preprocessing methods, further improving its efficiency. Overall, the CONN-SVM-GRP model can help researchers predict rainfall, which is essential for monitoring water resources and mitigating the impacts of droughts, floods, and other natural disasters.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Ehteram & Ali Najah Ahmed & Zohreh Sheikh Khozani & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2023. "Convolutional Neural Network -Support Vector Machine Model-Gaussian Process Regression: A New Machine Model for Predicting Monthly and Daily Rainfall," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(9), pages 3631-3655, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:9:d:10.1007_s11269-023-03519-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-023-03519-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Khalil Ghorbani & Meysam Salarijazi & Nozar Ghahreman, 2022. "Developing Stepwise m5 Tree Model to Determine the Influential Factors on Rainfall Prediction and to Overcome the Greedy Problem of its Algorithm," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(9), pages 3327-3348, July.
    2. Mahdie Afshari Nia & Fatemeh Panahi & Mohammad Ehteram, 2023. "Convolutional Neural Network- ANN- E (Tanh): A New Deep Learning Model for Predicting Rainfall," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(4), pages 1785-1810, March.
    3. Prabal Das & D. A. Sachindra & Kironmala Chanda, 2022. "Machine Learning-Based Rainfall Forecasting with Multiple Non-Linear Feature Selection Algorithms," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(15), pages 6043-6071, December.
    4. Elham Ghanbari-Adivi & Mohammad Ehteram & Alireza Farrokhi & Zohreh Sheikh Khozani, 2022. "Combining Radial Basis Function Neural Network Models and Inclusive Multiple Models for Predicting Suspended Sediment Loads," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(11), pages 4313-4342, September.
    5. Radhikesh Kumar & Maheshwari Prasad Singh & Bishwajit Roy & Afzal Hussain Shahid, 2021. "A Comparative Assessment of Metaheuristic Optimized Extreme Learning Machine and Deep Neural Network in Multi-Step-Ahead Long-term Rainfall Prediction for All-Indian Regions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(6), pages 1927-1960, April.
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