IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v37y2023i5d10.1007_s11269-023-03459-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Attribution of Streamflow Changes Considering Spatial Contributions and Driver Interactions Based on Hydrological Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Yinshan Xu

    (Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission)

  • Yubin Chen

    (Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission)

  • Yufeng Ren

    (China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd)

  • Zhengyang Tang

    (China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd)

  • Xu Yang

    (China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd)

  • Yu Zhang

    (Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute)

Abstract

Streamflow is one of the most important elements of a water resources system and is key to understanding the conditions of water resources at different scales. Therefore, clarifying streamflow changes and the causes is important for water resources management under changing environments. The variability of streamflow and drivers is very complex in the spatial dimension, which is particularly evident in large scale regions. This study aims to develop a new attribution analysis method based on hydrological modeling that considers spatial contributions and driver interactions. A large-scale Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is established. The calibrated SWAT model provides detailed, high-resolution descriptions of small-scale processes that are numerically integrated to larger scales. Based on the distributed simulation under different scenarios, attribution analysis can be conducted at scales as small as the sub-basins can be divided. Results reveal that: (1) Streamflow of the entire Upper Yangtze River Basin was significantly reduced by -8.9 km3 per ten years during the study period. Streamflow changes exhibited different characteristics in space. This emphasizes the necessity of introducing spatial contributions into attribution analysis. (2) At the basin scale, the decrease in precipitation and wind speed, the increase in maximum temperature, and land use/ cover change (LUCC) all contribute to the decrease in streamflow. While the increase in minimum temperature and decrease in relative humidity have the effect of increasing streamflow. At the basin scale or smaller sub-basin scale, there are significant differences in the contributions of driving factors to streamflow changes. This has practical implications for water resources management in terms of refining attribution analysis and adopting targeted countermeasures. Key Points • Develops a new multi-routes-based attribution analysis method using large-scale hydrological modeling. • Introduces spatial contributions into attribution analysis. • Conducts a case study based on the proposed method using real-world data.

Suggested Citation

  • Yinshan Xu & Yubin Chen & Yufeng Ren & Zhengyang Tang & Xu Yang & Yu Zhang, 2023. "Attribution of Streamflow Changes Considering Spatial Contributions and Driver Interactions Based on Hydrological Modeling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(5), pages 1859-1877, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:5:d:10.1007_s11269-023-03459-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-023-03459-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-023-03459-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-023-03459-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gajanan Ramteke & R. Singh & C. Chatterjee, 2020. "Assessing Impacts of Conservation Measures on Watershed Hydrology Using MIKE SHE Model in the Face of Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(13), pages 4233-4252, October.
    2. Xinyu Wan & Lijuan Hua & Shutan Yang & Hoshin V. Gupta & Ping’an Zhong, 2018. "Evaluating the Impacts of a Large-Scale Multi-Reservoir System on Flooding: Case of the Huai River in China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(3), pages 1013-1033, February.
    3. Vahid Moosavi & Ayoob Karami & Negin Behnia & Ronny Berndtsson & Christian Massari, 2022. "Linking Hydro-Physical Variables and Landscape Metrics using Advanced Data Mining for Stream-Flow Prediction," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(11), pages 4255-4273, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiaowen Zhuang & Yurui Fan & Yongping Li & Chuanbao Wu, 2023. "Evaluation Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources Over the Upper Reach of the Yellow River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2875-2889, May.
    2. Hongwu Tang & Hao Cao & Saiyu Yuan & Yang Xiao & Chenyu Jiang & Carlo Gualtieri, 2020. "A Numerical Study of Hydrodynamic Processes and Flood Mitigation in a Large River-lake System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(12), pages 3739-3760, September.
    3. Xumin Zhang & Simin Qu & Jijie Shen & Yingbing Chen & Xiaoqiang Yang & Peng Jiang & Peng Shi, 2023. "Effect of Distinct Evaluation Objectives on Different Precipitation Downscaling Methods and the Corresponding Potential Impacts on Catchment Runoff Modelling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(5), pages 1913-1930, March.
    4. Negar Tayebzadeh Moghadam & Karim C. Abbaspour & Bahram Malekmohammadi & Mario Schirmer & Ahmad Reza Yavari, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Modelling of Water Balance Components in Response to Climate and Landuse Changes in a Heterogeneous Mountainous Catchment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(3), pages 793-810, February.
    5. Manlin Wang & Yu Zhang & Yan Lu & Li Gao & Leizhi Wang, 2023. "Attribution Analysis of Streamflow Changes Based on Large-scale Hydrological Modeling with Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(2), pages 713-730, January.
    6. Yi-han Tang & Jie-feng Wu & Pei-yi Li & Li-juan Zhang & Xiao-hong Chen & Kai-rong Lin, 2019. "Quantifying Flood Frequency Modification Caused by Multi-Reservoir Regulation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(13), pages 4451-4470, October.
    7. Xinyu Wan & Qingyan Yang & Peng Jiang & Ping’an Zhong, 2019. "A Hybrid Model for Real-Time Probabilistic Flood Forecasting Using Elman Neural Network with Heterogeneity of Error Distributions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(11), pages 4027-4050, September.
    8. Rongrong Li & Lihua Xiong & Xini Zha & Bin Xiong & Han Liu & Jie Chen & Ling Zeng & Wenbin Li, 2022. "Impacts of climate and reservoirs on the downstream design flood hydrograph: a case study of Yichang Station," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(3), pages 1803-1831, September.
    9. Vamsi Krishna Vema & K. P. Sudheer & A. N. Rohith & I. Chaubey, 2022. "Impact of water conservation structures on the agricultural productivity in the context of climate change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(5), pages 1627-1644, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:5:d:10.1007_s11269-023-03459-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.