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A Comparative Study of Linear Stochastic with Nonlinear Daily River Discharge Forecast Models

Author

Listed:
  • Hossein Bonakdari

    (Laval University)

  • Andrew D. Binns

    (University of Guelph)

  • Bahram Gharabaghi

    (University of Guelph)

Abstract

Accurate forecast of the magnitude and timing of the flood peak river discharge and the extent of inundated areas during major storm events are a vital component of early warning systems around the world that are responsible for saving countless lives every year. This study assesses the forecast accuracy of two different linear and non-linear approaches to predict the daily river discharge. A new linear stochastic method is produced by evaluating a detailed comparison between three pre-processing approaches, differencing, standardization, spectral analysis, and trend removal. Daily river discharge values of the Bow River with strong seasonal and non-seasonal correlations located in Alberta, Canada were utilized in this study. The stochastic term for this daily flow time series is calculated with an auto-regressive integrated moving average. We found that seasonal differencing is the best stationarization method for periodic effect elimination. Moreover, the proposed non-linear Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) model could overcome the known accuracy limitations of the classical GMDH models that use only two inputs in each neuron from the adjacent layer. The proposed new non-linear GMDH-based method (named GS-GMDH) can improve the structure of the classical linear GMDH. The GS-GMDH model produced the most accurate forecasts in the Bow River case study with statistical indices such as the coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe for the daily discharge time series higher than 97% and relative error less than 6%. Finally, an explicit equation for estimation of the daily discharge of the Bow River is developed using the proposed GS-GMDH model to showcase the practical application of the new method in flood forecasting and management.

Suggested Citation

  • Hossein Bonakdari & Andrew D. Binns & Bahram Gharabaghi, 2020. "A Comparative Study of Linear Stochastic with Nonlinear Daily River Discharge Forecast Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(11), pages 3689-3708, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:34:y:2020:i:11:d:10.1007_s11269-020-02644-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02644-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    2. Francesco Serinaldi & Florian Loecker & Chris G. Kilsby & Hubert Bast, 2018. "Flood propagation and duration in large river basins: a data-driven analysis for reinsurance purposes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(1), pages 71-92, October.
    3. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xin Jing & Jungang Luo & Jingmin Wang & Ganggang Zuo & Na Wei, 2022. "A Multi-imputation Method to Deal With Hydro-Meteorological Missing Values by Integrating Chain Equations and Random Forest," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(4), pages 1159-1173, March.
    2. Maha Shabbir & Sohail Chand & Farhat Iqbal, 2022. "A Novel Hybrid Method for River Discharge Prediction," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(1), pages 253-272, January.

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