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Impact of Normalization and Input on ARMAX-ANN Model Performance in Suspended Sediment Load Prediction

Author

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  • Hamid Moeeni

    (Razi University)

  • Hossein Bonakdari

    (Razi University)

Abstract

The suspended sediment load in rivers is an important parameter in watershed planning and management. Since daily suspended sediment time series contain linear and nonlinear components, existing prediction models are associated with limitations. Therefore, this study introduces a new hybrid model comprising two commonly used stochastic and nonlinear models. The sediment load is first modeled by an autoregressive-moving average with exogenous terms (ARMAX) model. Subsequently, the ARMAX residuals are modeled with an artificial neural network (ANN). For this purpose, discharge (Q) and sediment (S) are considered as model input parameters. Three modeling scenarios are defined to investigate the impact of data normalization on the hybrid model. The exponential and Box-Cox transformation methods are combined into a new data normalization method called mixed transformation. The performance of these methods is then compared. In addition, the impact of the type and number of input combinations on ARMAX-ANN model accuracy is evaluated. To this end, 12 input combinations and 1331 ARMAX and ANN models are verified. The ARMAX model inputs include S, Q and the white noise disturbance term (e), while the ANN model inputs include the ARMAX model results and residuals. Moreover, the hybrid model’s accuracy is compared with the ARMAX and ANN models.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamid Moeeni & Hossein Bonakdari, 2018. "Impact of Normalization and Input on ARMAX-ANN Model Performance in Suspended Sediment Load Prediction," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(3), pages 845-863, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1842-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1842-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Li, Yan-fei, 2012. "Comparison of two new ARIMA-ANN and ARIMA-Kalman hybrid methods for wind speed prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 415-424.
    2. M. Mustafa & R. Rezaur & S. Saiedi & M. Isa, 2012. "River Suspended Sediment Prediction Using Various Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Training Algorithms—A Case Study in Malaysia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(7), pages 1879-1897, May.
    3. Hamid Moeeni & Hossein Bonakdari & Isa Ebtehaj, 2017. "Integrated SARIMA with Neuro-Fuzzy Systems and Neural Networks for Monthly Inflow Prediction," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(7), pages 2141-2156, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohammed Achite & Saeed Samadianfard & Nehal Elshaboury & Milad Sharafi, 2023. "Modeling and optimization of coagulant dosage in water treatment plants using hybridized random forest model with genetic algorithm optimization," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(10), pages 11189-11207, October.
    2. Bibhuti Bhusan Sahoo & Sovan Sankalp & Ozgur Kisi, 2023. "A Novel Smoothing-Based Deep Learning Time-Series Approach for Daily Suspended Sediment Load Prediction," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(11), pages 4271-4292, September.
    3. Elham Ghanbari-Adivi & Mohammad Ehteram & Alireza Farrokhi & Zohreh Sheikh Khozani, 2022. "Combining Radial Basis Function Neural Network Models and Inclusive Multiple Models for Predicting Suspended Sediment Loads," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(11), pages 4313-4342, September.

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