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Assessing Financial Loss due to Pluvial Flooding and the Efficacy of Risk-Reduction Measures in the Residential Property Sector

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  • Janez Sušnik
  • Clemens Strehl
  • Luuk Postmes
  • Lydia Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia
  • Hans-Joachim Mälzer
  • Dragan Savić
  • Zoran Kapelan

Abstract

A novel quantitative risk assessment for residential properties at risk of pluvial flooding in Eindhoven, The Netherlands, is presented. A hydraulic model belonging to Eindhoven was forced with low return period rainfall events (2, 5 and 10-year design rainfalls). Three scenarios were analysed for each event: a baseline and two risk-reduction scenarios. GIS analysis identified areas where risk-reduction measures had the greatest impact. Financial loss calculations were carried out using fixed-threshold and probabilistic approaches. Under fixed-threshold assessment, per-event Expected Annual Damage (EAD) reached €38.2 m, with reductions of up to €454,000 resulting from risk-reduction measures. Present costs of flooding reach €1.43bn when calculated over a 50-year period. All net-present value figures for the risk-reduction measures are negative. Probabilistic assessment yielded EAD values up to more than double those of the fixed-threshold analysis which suggested positive net-present value. To the best of our knowledge, the probabilistic method based on the distribution of doorstep heights has never before been introduced for pluvial flood risk assessment. Although this work suggests poor net-present value of risk-reduction measures, indirect impacts of flooding, damage to infrastructure and the potential impacts of climate change were omitted. This work represents a useful first step in helping Eindhoven prepare for future pluvial flooding. The analysis is based on software and tools already available at the municipality, eliminating the need for software upgrading or training. The approach is generally applicable to similar cities. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Janez Sušnik & Clemens Strehl & Luuk Postmes & Lydia Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia & Hans-Joachim Mälzer & Dragan Savić & Zoran Kapelan, 2015. "Assessing Financial Loss due to Pluvial Flooding and the Efficacy of Risk-Reduction Measures in the Residential Property Sector," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(1), pages 161-179, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:29:y:2015:i:1:p:161-179
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-014-0833-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. Ballesteros-Cánovas & M. Sanchez-Silva & J. Bodoque & A. Díez-Herrero, 2013. "An Integrated Approach to Flood Risk Management: A Case Study of Navaluenga (Central Spain)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 3051-3069, June.
    2. H. Moel & J. Aerts, 2011. "Effect of uncertainty in land use, damage models and inundation depth on flood damage estimates," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(1), pages 407-425, July.
    3. Wim Kellens & Wouter Vanneuville & Els Verfaillie & Ellen Meire & Pieter Deckers & Philippe Maeyer, 2013. "Flood Risk Management in Flanders: Past Developments and Future Challenges," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3585-3606, August.
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    1. Seyed M. H. S. Rezvani & Maria João Falcão Silva & Nuno Marques de Almeida, 2024. "Urban Resilience Index for Critical Infrastructure: A Scenario-Based Approach to Disaster Risk Reduction in Road Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-41, May.
    2. Sandra Costa & Rik Peters & Ricardo Martins & Luuk Postmes & Jan Jacob Keizer & Peter Roebeling, 2021. "Effectiveness of Nature-Based Solutions on Pluvial Flood Hazard Mitigation: The Case Study of the City of Eindhoven (The Netherlands)," Resources, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-14, March.
    3. Ambika Markanday & Ibon Galarraga & Anil Markandya, 2019. "A Critical Review Of Cost-Benefit Analysis For Climate Change Adaptation In Cities," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(04), pages 1-31, November.

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