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The Value of Snow Depletion Forecasting Methods Towards Operational Snowmelt Runoff Estimation Using MODIS and Numerical Weather Prediction Data

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  • Aynur Şensoy
  • Gökçen Uysal

Abstract

Forecasting streamflow mainly due to snowmelt in the mountainous eastern part of Turkey is important in terms of effective management of water resources at the headwaters of Euphrates River, where large dam reservoirs are located. Monitoring Snow Covered Area (SCA) and modeling snowmelt forms the backbone of the forecasting studies as the snowmelt dominating runoff constitutes approximately 2/3 of total annual volume of runoff during spring and early summer. Two main motivations of the study are; firstly, to assess the methodologies to forecast SCA using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and derive Snow Depletion Curve (SDC) for each elevation zone. Secondly, to forecast 1 day ahead daily discharges using the derived SDCs and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data corrected specifically for the area. The Upper Euphrates Basin (10,275 km 2 ) is selected as the pilot basin and MODIS daily snow cover products are analyzed for the snowmelt season. Four different methodologies are proposed and assessed to forecast SDCs; simple averaging, temperature based, stochastic modeling and probabilistic approach. SDCs are derived for the water years 2006–2010, 4 years data are used to derive the equations of the methodologies and 1 year is used to verify their skills. Forecasting discharges 1 day ahead with Snowmelt Runoff Model using NWP data is the second part of the study. Impact of forecasted SDCs with different methodologies is examined with the model. Model applications provide promising results both for the forecasting of SCA and runoff with an overall Model Efficiency higher than 0.60 and 0.85, respectively. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

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  • Aynur Şensoy & Gökçen Uysal, 2012. "The Value of Snow Depletion Forecasting Methods Towards Operational Snowmelt Runoff Estimation Using MODIS and Numerical Weather Prediction Data," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(12), pages 3415-3440, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:26:y:2012:i:12:p:3415-3440
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0079-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sanjay Jain & L. Thakural & R. Singh & A. Lohani & S. Mishra, 2011. "Snow cover depletion under changed climate with the help of remote sensing and temperature data," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(3), pages 891-904, September.
    2. Nathan Forsythe & Hayley Fowler & Chris Kilsby & David Archer, 2012. "Opportunities from Remote Sensing for Supporting Water Resources Management in Village/Valley Scale Catchments in the Upper Indus Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(4), pages 845-871, March.
    3. Sanjay Jain & Ajanta Goswami & A. Saraf, 2009. "Role of Elevation and Aspect in Snow Distribution in Western Himalaya," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(1), pages 71-83, January.
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    1. Anand Verdhen & Bhagu Chahar & Om Sharma, 2014. "Snowmelt Modelling Approaches in Watershed Models: Computation and Comparison of Efficiencies under Varying Climatic Conditions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(11), pages 3439-3453, September.
    2. Gino-Karl Marcil & Mélanie Trudel & Robert Leconte, 2016. "Using Remotely Sensed MODIS Snow Product for the Management of Reservoirs in a Mountainous Canadian Watershed," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(8), pages 2735-2747, June.
    3. Jie Chen & François Brissette, 2015. "Combining Stochastic Weather Generation and Ensemble Weather Forecasts for Short-Term Streamflow Prediction," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(9), pages 3329-3342, July.

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