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The Fallibility of Flood Warning Chains: Can Europe’s Flood Warnings Be Effective?

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  • D. Parker
  • S. Priest

Abstract

Taking a broad overview, this paper explores recent evidence on flood forecasting, warning communication and public warning response in Europe between 1995 and 2010. Key flood warning chain deficiencies are identified together with the effect these deficiencies have on flood warning effectiveness and loss reduction. Europe-wide data on flood forecasting and warning communication are examined alongside recent in-depth research evidence from various parts of Europe on flood warning receipt, warning response and warning effectiveness. Using the latest flood warning benefit assessment methodologies, the results of case studies of flood loss avoidance through warnings reveal the damage saving potential of flood warning. Although these savings are significant, currently they are inhibited by a series of shortcomings which transfer through the warning chain limiting warning impact. Flood forecasting, warning and warning response systems are inherently fallible and so it is doubtful that they will ever be consistently effective. Sole reliance upon them to protect life and property carries inevitable risks and governments should not be surprised when flood warnings are only partially effective. Although Europe’s flood forecasting and warnings have been improving, the scope for further improvement is large. Extending flood forecasting and warning coverage, extending warning lead times by combining meteorological and hydrological forecasts, building greater redundancy into warning communication, and crucially also building it into cooperative strategies designed to engage at risk communities in flood warning response, are all likely to be important. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • D. Parker & S. Priest, 2012. "The Fallibility of Flood Warning Chains: Can Europe’s Flood Warnings Be Effective?," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(10), pages 2927-2950, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:26:y:2012:i:10:p:2927-2950
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0057-6
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    2. Kaddour Mehiriz & Pierre Gosselin, 2016. "Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(9), pages 1-17, September.
    3. F. Daupras & J. Antoine & S. Becerra & A. Peltier, 2015. "Analysis of the robustness of the French flood warning system: a study based on the 2009 flood of the Garonne River," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 215-241, January.
    4. George Tsakiris & Vasilis Bellos, 2014. "A Numerical Model for Two-Dimensional Flood Routing in Complex Terrains," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(5), pages 1277-1291, March.
    5. Linda Sorg & Neiler Medina & Daniel Feldmeyer & Arlex Sanchez & Zoran Vojinovic & Jörn Birkmann & Alessandra Marchese, 2018. "Capturing the multifaceted phenomena of socioeconomic vulnerability," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(1), pages 257-282, May.
    6. Guangming Yu & Sa Wang & Qiwu Yu & Lei Wu & Yong Fan & Xiaoli He & Xia Zhou & Huanhuan Jia & Shu Zhang & Xiaojuan Tian, 2014. "The Regional Limit of Flood-Bearing Capability: A Theoretical Model and Approaches," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(7), pages 1921-1936, May.
    7. Xin He & Simon Stisen & Marianne Wiese & Hans Henriksen, 2016. "Designing a Hydrological Real-Time System for Surface Water and Groundwater in Denmark with Engagement of Stakeholders," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(5), pages 1785-1802, March.

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