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Iterative QML estimation for asymmetric stochastic volatility models

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  • Paolo Chirico

    (Università del Piemonte Orientale)

Abstract

The paper illustrates a new procedure for estimating asymmetric stochastic volatility models. These models shape the asymmetric effect of negative and positive financial returns on the expected volatility, behaviour often observed in the stock prices, and known as “leverage effect”. The procedure is based on the iterative application of the quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) method and is proposed as an alternative to the procedure presented by Harvey and Shephard in 1996 and based on the application of the QML method on a modified auxiliary model. The estimation results generally converge to constant values after a few iterations. The volatility predictor provided by the new method is conceptually similar to the EGARCH predictor and different from the predictor of the other procedure. A simulation study shows that the iterative QML method provides parameter estimators with RMSEs decreasing as series length increases. The distribution of the estimates is approximately normal, and the approximation improves as the series size increases. Empirical applications of the method provide results similar to ones of the method known in literature. However, the two methods provide two different predictors and smoothers of volatility, which should be compared on a case-by-case basis.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Chirico, 2024. "Iterative QML estimation for asymmetric stochastic volatility models," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 33(3), pages 885-900, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:stmapp:v:33:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s10260-024-00747-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10260-024-00747-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetric stochastic volatility; Leverage effect; Iterative quasi maximum likelihood;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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