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A Monte Carlo analysis on the impact of climate change on future crop choice and water use in Uzbekistan

Author

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  • Donna Mitchell

    (Texas Tech University)

  • Ryan B. Williams

    (Texas Tech University)

  • Darren Hudson
  • Phillip Johnson

    (Texas Tech University)

Abstract

Central Asia is considered a hot spot for severe water stress. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), over the next century this region is expected to see a rise in temperatures and experience lower amounts of rainfall, creating a more arid climate. Regional agricultural policies have dominated water resource use. The impact of climate change coupled with market distorting economic policies, inefficient irrigation systems, and lack of water rights, could lead to social instability in the region. This analysis employs two downscaled climate projections and two Relative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (4.5 and 8.5) to simulate the impact of climate change on crop production, water use, and future crop allocations in the Khorezm region of Uzbekistan. Drought scenarios show drastic changes in crop productivity and producer profitability. If production quotas are removed, this region has the ability to become self-sufficient in wheat production, increasing its capacity to achieve food security.

Suggested Citation

  • Donna Mitchell & Ryan B. Williams & Darren Hudson & Phillip Johnson, 2017. "A Monte Carlo analysis on the impact of climate change on future crop choice and water use in Uzbekistan," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(4), pages 697-709, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:9:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s12571-017-0690-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s12571-017-0690-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Aw-Hassan, Aden, 2014. "Impacts of climate change on farm income security in Central Asia: An integrated modeling approach," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 188, pages 245-255.
    2. Havlík,Petr & Valin,Hugo Jean Pierre & Gusti,Mykola & Schmid,Erwin & Forsell,Nicklas & Herrero,Mario & Khabarov,Nikolay & Mosnier,Aline & Cantele,Matthew & Obersteiner,Michael, 2015. "Climate change impacts and mitigation in the developing world : an integrated assessment of the agriculture and forestry sectors," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7477, The World Bank.
    3. Mirzabaev, Alisher, 2013. "Impacts of Weather Variability and Climate Change on Agricultural Revenues in Central Asia," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 52(3), pages 1-16, August.
    4. William R. Sutton & Jitendra P. Srivastava & James E. Neumann, 2013. "Looking Beyond the Horizon : How Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Responses Will Reshape Agriculture in Eastern Europe and Central Asia," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13119.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmad Hamidov & Ulan Kasymov & Kakhramon Djumaboev & Carsten Paul, 2022. "Rebound Effects in Irrigated Agriculture in Uzbekistan: A Stakeholder-Based Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-15, July.
    2. Aihemaitijiang Rouzi & Ümüt Halik & Niels Thevs & Martin Welp & Tayierjiang Aishan, 2017. "Water Efficient Alternative Crops for Sustainable Agriculture along the Tarim Basin: A Comparison of the Economic Potentials of Apocynum pictum , Chinese Red Date and Cotton in Xinjiang, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, December.
    3. Wanlu Liu & Lulu Liu & Jiangbo Gao, 2020. "Adapting to climate change: gaps and strategies for Central Asia," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(8), pages 1439-1459, December.
    4. Danyang Gao & Albert S. Chen & Fayyaz Ali Memon, 2024. "A Systematic Review of Methods for Investigating Climate Change Impacts on Water-Energy-Food Nexus," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(1), pages 1-43, January.

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