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Tropical agriculturalisation: scenarios, their environmental impacts and the role of climate change in determining water-for-food, locally and along supply chains

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  • Mark Mulligan

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to examine the potential for continued agriculturalisation in the tropics and the potential impacts of this on tropical natural capital and ecosystem services. Concurrently we examine the extent to which projected climate change will drive changes in the water available to support food security, locally and along supply chains through impacts on rainfall in key agricultural areas and the implications of climate change for continued agriculturalisation. We make use of global spatial datasets to examine the tropical distribution of current cropland and pasture and the distribution of the remaining non-agricultural ‘wild’ areas in relation to their suitability for cropland and pasture. We thus identify the most suitable/likely areas for further agriculturalisation in the tropics under increased domestic and export demand. We then examine the potential risks to natural capital and ecosystem services of such agriculturalisation and highlight critical areas for careful agricultural expansion. We examine the non-agricultural lands with greatest suitability for pasture and cropland and highlight the key countries capable of contributing to significant increases in global food production. Further, we examine trends in recent land use change and project these forward to understand the parts of those countries most imminently likely to go under the plough and consider implications for natural capital and ecosystem services. We then examine ensemble climate change projections for the current agricultural areas in Latin America, to better understand likely impacts of tropical climate change on sustained agricultural suitability in these areas, with implications for further extensification. Finally, we use the COMTRADE database to examine the flows of “embedded rainfall” supporting key agricultural commodities from the tropics. This is in order to understand the extent to which climate change will amplify or diminish the potential for virtual water flows between the tropics and the rest of the world. Results indicate rapid and necessary agriculturalisation in the tropics under business as usual, which brings considerable threats to the remaining natural capital and ecosystem services in these areas. At the same time we expect climate change - at least for South America - to bring greater water availability and the possibility of increased productivity in current agricultural areas. If true, this could offset some of the demand for expensive and risky extensification of agriculture, and encourage a more focused intensification. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht and International Society for Plant Pathology 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Mulligan, 2015. "Tropical agriculturalisation: scenarios, their environmental impacts and the role of climate change in determining water-for-food, locally and along supply chains," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 7(6), pages 1133-1152, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:7:y:2015:i:6:p:1133-1152
    DOI: 10.1007/s12571-015-0506-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nordhaus, William D., 1993. "Rolling the 'DICE': an optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 27-50, March.
    2. Hope, Chris & Anderson, John & Wenman, Paul, 1993. "Policy analysis of the greenhouse effect : An application of the PAGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 327-338, March.
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    1. Gutiérrez-Arellano, Claudia & Mulligan, Mark, 2020. "Small-sized protected areas contribute more per unit area to tropical crop pollination than large protected areas," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    2. Ávila-García, Daniela & Morató, Jordi & Pérez-Maussán, Ana I. & Santillán-Carvantes, Patricia & Alvarado, Jannice & Comín, Francisco A., 2020. "Impacts of alternative land-use policies on water ecosystem services in the Río Grande de Comitán-Lagos de Montebello watershed, Mexico," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    3. Sassen, Marieke & van Soesbergen, Arnout & Arnell, Andrew P. & Scott, Emma, 2022. "Patterns of (future) environmental risks from cocoa expansion and intensification in West Africa call for context specific responses," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    4. Erasmo Rodríguez & Inés Sánchez & Nicolás Duque & Pedro Arboleda & Carolina Vega & David Zamora & Patricia López & Alexander Kaune & Micha Werner & Camila García & Sophia Burke, 2020. "Combined Use of Local and Global Hydro Meteorological Data with Hydrological Models for Water Resources Management in the Magdalena - Cauca Macro Basin – Colombia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(7), pages 2179-2199, May.

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