IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/ssefpa/v7y2015i6p1133-1152.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Tropical agriculturalisation: scenarios, their environmental impacts and the role of climate change in determining water-for-food, locally and along supply chains

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Mulligan

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to examine the potential for continued agriculturalisation in the tropics and the potential impacts of this on tropical natural capital and ecosystem services. Concurrently we examine the extent to which projected climate change will drive changes in the water available to support food security, locally and along supply chains through impacts on rainfall in key agricultural areas and the implications of climate change for continued agriculturalisation. We make use of global spatial datasets to examine the tropical distribution of current cropland and pasture and the distribution of the remaining non-agricultural ‘wild’ areas in relation to their suitability for cropland and pasture. We thus identify the most suitable/likely areas for further agriculturalisation in the tropics under increased domestic and export demand. We then examine the potential risks to natural capital and ecosystem services of such agriculturalisation and highlight critical areas for careful agricultural expansion. We examine the non-agricultural lands with greatest suitability for pasture and cropland and highlight the key countries capable of contributing to significant increases in global food production. Further, we examine trends in recent land use change and project these forward to understand the parts of those countries most imminently likely to go under the plough and consider implications for natural capital and ecosystem services. We then examine ensemble climate change projections for the current agricultural areas in Latin America, to better understand likely impacts of tropical climate change on sustained agricultural suitability in these areas, with implications for further extensification. Finally, we use the COMTRADE database to examine the flows of “embedded rainfall” supporting key agricultural commodities from the tropics. This is in order to understand the extent to which climate change will amplify or diminish the potential for virtual water flows between the tropics and the rest of the world. Results indicate rapid and necessary agriculturalisation in the tropics under business as usual, which brings considerable threats to the remaining natural capital and ecosystem services in these areas. At the same time we expect climate change - at least for South America - to bring greater water availability and the possibility of increased productivity in current agricultural areas. If true, this could offset some of the demand for expensive and risky extensification of agriculture, and encourage a more focused intensification. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht and International Society for Plant Pathology 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Mulligan, 2015. "Tropical agriculturalisation: scenarios, their environmental impacts and the role of climate change in determining water-for-food, locally and along supply chains," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 7(6), pages 1133-1152, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:7:y:2015:i:6:p:1133-1152
    DOI: 10.1007/s12571-015-0506-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s12571-015-0506-1
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12571-015-0506-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hope, Chris & Anderson, John & Wenman, Paul, 1993. "Policy analysis of the greenhouse effect : An application of the PAGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 327-338, March.
    2. Nordhaus, William D., 1993. "Rolling the 'DICE': an optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 27-50, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ávila-García, Daniela & Morató, Jordi & Pérez-Maussán, Ana I. & Santillán-Carvantes, Patricia & Alvarado, Jannice & Comín, Francisco A., 2020. "Impacts of alternative land-use policies on water ecosystem services in the Río Grande de Comitán-Lagos de Montebello watershed, Mexico," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    2. Erasmo Rodríguez & Inés Sánchez & Nicolás Duque & Pedro Arboleda & Carolina Vega & David Zamora & Patricia López & Alexander Kaune & Micha Werner & Camila García & Sophia Burke, 2020. "Combined Use of Local and Global Hydro Meteorological Data with Hydrological Models for Water Resources Management in the Magdalena - Cauca Macro Basin – Colombia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(7), pages 2179-2199, May.
    3. Gutiérrez-Arellano, Claudia & Mulligan, Mark, 2020. "Small-sized protected areas contribute more per unit area to tropical crop pollination than large protected areas," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    4. Sassen, Marieke & van Soesbergen, Arnout & Arnell, Andrew P. & Scott, Emma, 2022. "Patterns of (future) environmental risks from cocoa expansion and intensification in West Africa call for context specific responses," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Toth, Ferenc L, 1995. "Discounting in integrated assessments of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4-5), pages 403-409.
    2. Adam Michael Bauer & Cristian Proistosescu & Gernot Wagner, 2023. "Carbon Dioxide as a Risky Asset," CESifo Working Paper Series 10278, CESifo.
    3. Wei, Yi-Ming & Mi, Zhi-Fu & Huang, Zhimin, 2015. "Climate policy modeling: An online SCI-E and SSCI based literature review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 57(PA), pages 70-84.
    4. van den Bijgaart, Inge & Gerlagh, Reyer & Liski, Matti, 2016. "A simple formula for the social cost of carbon," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 75-94.
    5. Paul Ekins, 1995. "Rethinking the costs related to global warming: A survey of the issues," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 6(3), pages 231-277, October.
    6. Oschlies, Andreas & Held, Hermann & Keller, David & Keller, Klaus & Mengis, Nadine & Quaas, Martin & Rickels, Wilfried & Schmidt, Hauke, 2017. "Indicators and Metrics for the Assessment of Climate Engineering," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 226354, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Hassler, J. & Krusell, P. & Smith, A.A., 2016. "Environmental Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1893-2008, Elsevier.
    8. Plambeck, Erica L. & Hope, Chris & Anderson, John, 1997. "The model: Integrating the science and economics of global warming," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 77-101, March.
    9. van den Bijgaart, Inge & Gerlagh, Reyer & Liski, Matti, 2016. "A simple formula for the social cost of carbon," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 75-94.
    10. Plambeck, Erica L & Hope, Chris, 1996. "PAGE95 : An updated valuation of the impacts of global warming," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(9), pages 783-793, September.
    11. Arvaniti, Maria, 2016. "Uncertainty, Extreme Outcomes and Climate Change: a critique," CERE Working Papers 2016:11, CERE - the Center for Environmental and Resource Economics.
    12. Wahba, Mohammed & Hope, Chris, 2006. "The marginal impact of carbon dioxide under two scenarios of future emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3305-3316, November.
    13. Johan Eyckmans & Michael Finus, 2006. "New roads to international environmental agreements: the case of global warming," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 7(4), pages 391-414, December.
    14. Senni, Chiara Colesanti & von Jagow, Adrian, 2023. "Water risks for hydroelectricity generation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119256, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Pycroft, Jonathan & Vergano, Lucia & Hope, Chris & Paci, Daniele & Ciscar, Juan Carlos, 2011. "A tale of tails: Uncertainty and the social cost of carbon dioxide," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 5, pages 1-29.
    16. Balint, T. & Lamperti, F. & Mandel, A. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2017. "Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: A Survey and a Look Forward," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 252-265.
    17. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    18. Xiang-Yu Wang & Bao-Jun Tang, 2018. "Review of comparative studies on market mechanisms for carbon emission reduction: a bibliometric analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(3), pages 1141-1162, December.
    19. Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "The Marginal Costs Of Carbon Dioxide Emissions: An Assessment Of The Uncertainties," Working Papers FNU-19, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2003.
    20. Francesco Lamperti & Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Alessandro Sapio, 2018. "And then he wasn't a she : Climate change and green transitions in an agent-based integrated assessment model," Working Papers hal-03443464, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:7:y:2015:i:6:p:1133-1152. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.