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Assessing global price shocks and mitigation policies on welfare and food security in Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Pierre Nziengui Mamboundou

    (International Food Policy Research Institute)

  • Luis Enrique Escalante Ochoa

    (International Food Policy Research Institute)

  • Oluwasola Emmanuel Omoju

    (National Institute for Legislative and Democratic)

Abstract

Variations in agricultural and energy prices have direct and cascading effects on economic and agri-food systems. In this study, we developed a dynamic general equilibrium model to simulate the impact of the global price shocks induced by the Russia-Ukraine war on welfare and food security in Nigeria. In addition, we analysed the effectiveness of different policy options, specifically a reduction in indirect taxes and an increase in cash transfers to affected households, in the short and long term. The results showed that the shocks create opportunities for Nigeria, particularly in the trade, livestock, and agricultural sectors. This leads to an increase in GDP, employment, and incomes. However, these effects fade over time due to the rise in food prices that negatively affects food consumption and some food security indicators. Moreover, the comparative analysis of mitigation scenarios revealed that targeted public cash transfers to households are more effective than reduction in consumption taxes on food in mitigating the negative effects on households.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Nziengui Mamboundou & Luis Enrique Escalante Ochoa & Oluwasola Emmanuel Omoju, 2025. "Assessing global price shocks and mitigation policies on welfare and food security in Nigeria," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 17(1), pages 275-292, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:17:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s12571-024-01497-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s12571-024-01497-2
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