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Long-term Forecast of Agricultural Development in Russia Based on an Economic and Mathematical Model

Author

Listed:
  • I. G. Ushachev

    (All-Russian Research Institute of Agricultural Economy (ARRIAE))

  • M. V. Kharina

    (All-Russian Research Institute of Agricultural Economy (ARRIAE))

  • V. S. Chekalin

    (All-Russian Research Institute of Agricultural Economy (ARRIAE))

Abstract

— This article presents a long-term forecast for the development of agriculture based on a linear optimization model. In ARRIAE, this model is applied to make long-term forecasts for the development of agriculture and individual agro-based industries. The proposed model (partial equilibrium) is used to optimize the distribution of tangible and cost resources in agriculture by the criterion of maximizing food consumption for the population of Russia. The guidelines for compiling a long-term forecast were macroeconomic parameters and directions of the long-term development in the national economy including the agro-industrial complex described in [1–6]. Model calculations were used in designing the Strategy for the Development of the Agro-Industrial and Fishery Complexes of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 [6] in terms of forecast volumes and indices of agricultural development for 2030. The forecast was made for two scenarios: target (optimistic) and “no-change” (pessimistic), depending on the emerging system of relations in the sector and in the Russian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • I. G. Ushachev & M. V. Kharina & V. S. Chekalin, 2022. "Long-term Forecast of Agricultural Development in Russia Based on an Economic and Mathematical Model," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 282-292, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:33:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1134_s1075700722030157
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700722030157
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Yu. Ksenofontov & D. A. Polzikov & Yu. S. Verbitskiy & Y. S. Melnikova, 2017. "On the assessment of the potential expansion of agricultural production and its structural shifts," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 28(6), pages 624-636, November.
    2. A. P. Zinchenko, 2017. "Studying the problems of economic reproduction in agriculture of Russia," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 140-146, March.
    3. N. M. Svetlov & S. O. Siptits & I. A. Romanenko & N. E. Evdokimova, 2019. "The Effect of Climate Change on the Location of Branches of Agriculture in Russia," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 406-418, July.
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