IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/sorede/v32y2021i5d10.1134_s1075700721050026.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

From Surplus to Deficit Fiscal Policy

Author

Listed:
  • M. P. Afanas’ev

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • N. N. Shash

    (Plekhanov Russian University of Economics)

Abstract

— The article discusses the reasoning associated with the change in the trajectory of the Russian budgetary policy in the current cycle and the substantiation of the forecast values of the main macroeconomic indicators used in the formation of the federal budget. The characteristics and analysis of the dynamics of the volumes of income and expenses are presented. The main theoretical concepts aimed at finding the optimal amount of debt financing for economic growth and the size of public debt are considered. The assessment of measures to balance the Russian budget in the context of the growth of public debt in the context of a decrease in budget revenues. The consequences of an increase in debt financing of the national economy are revealed and the values of indicators of Russia’s debt sustainability are calculated.

Suggested Citation

  • M. P. Afanas’ev & N. N. Shash, 2021. "From Surplus to Deficit Fiscal Policy," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 476-484, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:32:y:2021:i:5:d:10.1134_s1075700721050026
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700721050026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1134/S1075700721050026
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1134/S1075700721050026?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1197-1229, April.
    2. Jeremie Cohen-Setton & Egor Gornostay & Colombe Ladreit de Lacharriere, 2019. "Aggregate Effects of Budget Stimulus: Evidence from the Large Fiscal Expansions Database," Working Paper Series WP19-12, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    3. O. Dzh. Govtvan’, 2020. "Monetary Constraints on Economic Growth in Russia," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(6), pages 647-654, November.
    4. Siti Nurazira Mohd Daud & Jan M. Podivinsky, 2012. "Revisiting the role of external debt in economic growth of developing countries," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 968-993, June.
    5. Olivier J Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt: Fiscal and Welfare Costs in a Time of Low Interest Rates," Policy Briefs PB19-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    6. Karel Mertens, 2018. "The Near Term Growth Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act," Working Papers 1803, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    7. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 233-297.
    8. Cochrane, John H., 2011. "Understanding policy in the great recession: Some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 2-30, January.
    9. Hanson, James A., 2007. "The growth in government domestic debt : changing burdens and risks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4348, The World Bank.
    10. Joshua Aizenman & Hiro Ito, 2023. "Post COVID‐19 exit strategies and emerging markets economic challenges," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 1-34, February.
    11. Caner, Mehmet & Grennes,Thomas & Koehler-Geib, Fritzi, 2010. "Finding the tipping point -- when sovereign debt turns bad," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5391, The World Bank.
    12. Winston Moore & Chrystol Thomas, 2010. "A meta‐analysis of the relationship between debt and growth," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(3), pages 214-225, September.
    13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    14. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 673-685, September.
    15. Ms. Hélène Poirson & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo, 2004. "What Are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth?," IMF Working Papers 2004/015, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller, 2012. "Debt and Macroeconomic Stability: An Overview of the Literature and Some Empirics," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1006, OECD Publishing.
    17. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 233-297.
    18. D. B. Kuvalin & A. K. Moiseev & A. A. Shirov, 2020. "The Impact of Price Dynamics in Russia on Monetary Policy and Economic Development," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 533-540, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vítor Constâncio, 2020. "The Return of Fiscal Policy and the Euro Area Fiscal Rule," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(3), pages 358-372, September.
    2. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Kamiar Mohaddes, 2020. "Identifying Global and National Output and Fiscal Policy Shocks Using a GVAR," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Cheng Hsiao, volume 41, pages 143-189, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    3. Philipp Heimberger, 2018. "The Dynamic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation Episodes on Income Inequality," wiiw Working Papers 147, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    4. Francesco Simone Lucidi, 2023. "The misalignment of fiscal multipliers in Italian regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(10), pages 2073-2086, October.
    5. Philipp Heimberger, 2020. "The dynamic effects of fiscal consolidation episodes on income inequality: evidence for 17 OECD countries over 1978–2013," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 53-81, February.
    6. Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2014. "Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 21-41.
    7. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2016. "Public debt and economic growth: An empirical evaluation," Working Papers 16-06, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    8. Vítor Constâncio, 0. "The Return of Fiscal Policy and the Euro Area Fiscal Rule," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 0, pages 1-15.
    9. Panizza, Ugo & Fatás, Antonio & Ghosh, Atish R. & ,, 2019. "The Motives to Borrow," CEPR Discussion Papers 13735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2015. "“On the bi-directional causal relationship between public debt and economic growth in EMU countries”," IREA Working Papers 201512, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2015.
    11. El Mostafa Bentour, 2022. "The effects of public debt accumulation and business cycle on government spending multipliers," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(19), pages 2231-2256, April.
    12. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "The causal relationship between debt and growth in EMU countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 974-989.
    13. Georgios Magkonis & Anastasia Theofilakou, 2019. "Transmission of sectoral debt shocks in OECD countries: Evidence from the income channel," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2019-02, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    14. Nikolaos Filippakis & Theodoros V. Stamatopoulos, 2021. "Public Debt and Economic Growth: A Review of Contemporary Literature," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 19(1), pages 33-50.
    15. İbrahim Özmen & Mihai Mutascu, 2024. "Public Debt and Growth: New Insights," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 8706-8736, June.
    16. Oriol Carreras & Iana Liadze & Simon Kirby & Rebecca Piggott, 2016. "Quantifying Fiscal Multipliers," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 469, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    17. De Vita, Glauco & Trachanas, Emmanouil & Luo, Yun, 2018. "Revisiting the bi-directional causality between debt and growth: Evidence from linear and nonlinear tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 55-74.
    18. Jussi Lindgren, 2021. "Examination of Interest-Growth Differentials and the Risk of Sovereign Insolvency," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-14, April.
    19. Rosaria Rita Canale & Rita Siano, 2024. "Is government debt a burden on workers' income share? An investigation on Italian dynamics," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 41(2), pages 543-563, July.
    20. Markus Eberhardt & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "This Time They're Different: Heterogeneity;and Nonlinearity in the Relationship;between Debt and Growth," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 92, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:32:y:2021:i:5:d:10.1134_s1075700721050026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.